Polling booths have opened in the seat of Dunkley for a by-election expected to reveal how Australians feel a year before the next federal election.
Labor holds the seat in Melbourne’s outer south-eastern suburbs by a margin of 6.3 per cent, but both major parties are playing down expectations.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has spoken of the fact that by-elections normally see “around seven per cent” against governments, while Liberal Leader Peter Dutton has said it would be difficult for the opposition to win the seat.
The by-election won’t change the government – Labor has 77 seats in the 151-seat parliament, while the Coalition has 55 – but the results will be closely watched when counting begins at the polls’ close at 6 p.m. .
About 22,150 people have voted early, while 21,900 people voted by post, the Australian Electoral Commission said.
Those who have not yet voted can cast their vote at one of the electorate’s 32 polling booths from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said most governments expect a countermovement in midterm elections
‘It’s a big margin. But look, if there was an anti-government swing of about three percent, I think that would be a terrible outcome for Anthony Albanese,” Dutton told reporters.
Although Dunkley’s 113,000 voters will cast their ballots on Saturday, the seat is representative of more than a dozen other seats across the country that will decide the 2025 general election.
As such, it will be a test of the government’s policy to tackle the cost of living and its credibility after Mr Albanese broke an election promise to maintain the third Morrison government-era tax cuts as they were laid down in legislation.
The government has taken every opportunity to promote how its revamped Phase 3 tax cuts – which were passed by Parliament on Tuesday and come into effect on July 1 – would help more people than the Coalition’s legislative plan, which he had repeatedly promised it wouldn’t change.
The Opposition has focused on the government’s credibility and the fact that it is not doing enough to address the issues harming central Australia.
The candidates
The by-election was triggered by the death of popular MP Peta Murphy from breast cancer last year.
There are eight candidates on the ballot, but it will be a battle between the ALP and the Liberals.
Labour’s candidate is local community worker Jodie Belyea, who was recruited by Ms Murphy herself.
The Liberals have secured longtime Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy.
The by-election was triggered by the death of popular Labor MP Peta Murphy from breast cancer last year
Labour’s candidate is local community worker Jodie Belyea, who was recruited by Ms Murphy herself. The Liberals have secured longtime Frankston mayor Nathan Conroy
Mr Albanese said the battle to maintain Labour’s 6.3 per cent margin in the electorate would be “tough”, but he remained confident Ms Belyea would become popular with suburban voters.
“One of the differences between Jodie Belyea and the other candidates in this midterm election is that she will have a voice in government. Someone who can get things done as a voice in my government,” he told reporters.
“Don’t just be a guy who is behind all the other guys… who opposes everything, is negative about everything and runs fear campaigns.”
Dutton tempered expectations for a Liberal victory after early polls showed his party with a narrow lead in the days leading up to the vote.
‘It’s a big margin. But look, if there was an anti-government swing of about three percent, I think that would be a terrible outcome for Anthony Albanese,” Dutton told reporters.
“The boundaries have changed since a few years ago when we held the seat. So it has clearly gone to another Labor area.
“But the fact is that Nathan has done a great job in his local community and I think people will vote for him in large numbers.”