The widespread use of powerful, relatively new weight-loss drugs in the United States could boost gross domestic product by 1% in coming years as lower obesity-related health complications are likely to boost workplace efficiency, according to financial giant Goldman Sachs.
Some analysts have predicted that the weight-loss drug market could reach $100 billion a year by the end of this decade, with Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk and Mounjaro maker Eli Lilly taking the lead.
This class of drugs, called GLP-1 agonists, is being intensively pursued by several companies and more may come to market depending on clinical trials. Use of GLP-1s could increase by between 10 and 70 million consumers by 2028, Goldman Sachs said Thursday.
“If GLP-1 use ultimately increases by this amount and results in lower obesity rates, we see room for significant spillovers to the broader economy,” Goldman economists said in a note.
“Academic studies show that obese people both work less often and are less productive when they do.”
The brokerage’s estimated weight-loss drugs could increase U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.4% in a scenario with 30 million users, and could increase to 1% with 60 million users.
The drugs are controversial and the Goldman Sachs report will likely spark a backlash.
The current wave of healthcare innovations, such as artificial intelligence (AI)-powered drug research combined with GLP-1s, could increase the level of US GDP by 1.3% in the coming years, amounting to $360 billion per year at current exchange rates, with potential for an increase ranging from 0.6% to 3.2%.
“The effects are likely to be greater in the US than in other countries as health outcomes in other developed markets are generally better,” the brokerage added.
Meanwhile, weight-loss drugs are being researched to see if they can help conditions ranging from alcohol addiction to dementia.
Ozempic, a drug for type 2 diabetes, and Wegovy, which is licensed for weight loss, contain the drug semaglutide, while a similar drug, liraglutide, is available under different brand names for both purposes.
These drugs have become extremely popular, not least because they can help people lose more than 10% of their body weight. Researchers hoping the drugs could deliver even more benefits are setting up clinical trials.
Reuters contributed to the reporting