With a month to go until the only poll that matters, former President Donald Trump has once again gained a substantial lead in our electoral model.
A series of recent investigations show that he has leads in important theaters of war. And when the data is crunched through our DailyMail.com/JL Partners model, it shows that the former president wins in 56.7 percent of simulations.
As always, the road to the White House appears to lead through Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral college votes.
It’s been in ‘tossup’ territory for weeks. Now the model shifts it to “lean Trump” at what could be a decisive moment in the election race.
If that state is lost, Vice President Kamala Harris will struggle to prevail even if she wins Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin.
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With fewer paths to electoral college victory, Harris wins in only 43.2 percent of simulations.
It means Trump has a 13-point lead overall, up from just five points earlier this week.
To be clear, this is not something like a poll. Instead, it shows the frequency with which Trump wins the Electoral College when our model searches all thousands of possible permutations of states using the latest available data (along with decades of election results combined with economic data).
So far, his high was a 10-point lead last month, but that number has waxed and waned with new data input.
And the race remains incredibly close.
Harris is on track to win the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections).
Minnesota looks safer than ever for her, solidifying her college electoral floor, and she is two points stronger in Michigan, where both she and Trump campaigned on Thursday.
But the latest model outcome shows a clear direction, says Callum Hunter, data scientist at JL Partners.
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Former President Donald Trump has focused on the Midwest this past week. He was in Michigan on Thursday and after a rally in Pennsylvania he will be in Wisconsin on Saturday
“After a brief hiatus this past week, Trump’s dominance appears to be back – although this may be the cyclical nature of the polls,” Hunter said in his latest assessment.
That said, since Trump’s chances dropped on September 24, there has been a steady increase in his chances of winning the Electoral College.
It is a sign of the waning support for Harris after her two stellar months as presumptive successor and new candidate.
“It appears that Trump, at least according to our model, has somewhat strengthened his coalition and is on track to win in about three out of five simulations.”
He added that the worst news for Harris was that Pennsylvania was moving to “lean Trump.”
“This could all change next week with the polls, but the current situation looks bleak for Harris. “We are at a point where a small movement can make a big difference,” he said.
Vice President Kamala Harris was also in Michigan on Thursday
JL Partners runs its model twice a week, with the latest data.
On some days there is little change. Other times, like today, it shows one side or the other making a move.
Another uncertain factor that the model will have to calculate is the impact of Hurricane Helene. Last week it tore through the Southeast.
For example, it caused more damage in Republican voting areas of North Carolina than in other parts of the state, so any impact on turnout could have a disproportionate impact on the Trump campaign.
At the same time, criticism of federal relief could spell bad news for Vice President Harris.