Donald Trump surges to four-point lead over Biden in Daily Mail national poll, despite battling court cases
Donald Trump is expanding his lead over Joe Biden as the contours of next year's presidential elections come into focus.
Trump may face legal jeopardy as he fights a series of lawsuits, but he now leads Biden by four points in the latest Dailymail.com/JL Partners poll.
The results show that the former president has won over independent voters, while Biden has seen his support within his own party and among women decline.
The numbers will revive the debate over whether or not 81-year-old Biden can generate enough excitement among Democrats to make good on his promise that he is the best candidate to defeat 77-year-old Trump.
And it comes after a separate DailyMail.com poll showed he was losing to Trump in two of the three key battleground states.
JL Partners surveyed 984 likely voters across the country. The results show that Donald Trump has a four-point lead over Joe Biden. The results have a margin of error of 3.1 points
Biden has seen his slim lead in national polls disappear since the start of the year. Trump is also the frontrunner in a series of swing states that will likely determine the outcome
To look at the overall national picture, JL Partners surveyed 984 likely voters using landline and mobile phone calls, as well as text messages and smartphone apps.
When asked who they would vote for if the election were to take place tomorrow, 40 percent of respondents chose Trump and 36 percent for Biden.
Independents Robert Kennedy Jr. and Cornell West won 4 percent and one percent, respectively, while Green candidate Jill Stein's share was rounded down to zero.
So there remains a lot to play for. About 18 percent said they still have not made a choice or want a different candidate.
And the poll went into the field before the Colorado Supreme Court added another twist, disqualifying the former president from the state's Republican primary.
Still, James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said Trump was on the rise.
“Voters may think Trump is guilty of the charges he has laid upon him, including a significant portion of Republicans, but his record in his first term means he still has support,” he said.
“But when you look closer, it becomes clear that Trump's lead owes more to Biden's weakness than to Trump's strength.
“Biden has taken a particular hit among women ages 18 to 29, and has also suffered from low enthusiasm among Black people. There is also a large segment of the undecided — one in ten Biden 2020 voters — who may not like Biden but can't bring themselves to vote for Trump.
'The conclusion from this must be that, when the elections come, the race will be more exciting. As we close out 2023, both candidates have everything to play for.”
Biden had the advantage earlier this year, but has seen the momentum shift to his most likely opponent in next year's general election
JL Partners surveyed 550 voters in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin last month. The results showed that Joe Biden was in danger of losing two states that helped him win in 2020
Trump has not yet secured the Republican nomination. That picture will become clearer in January when Republicans in Iowa and New Hampshire choose their preferred candidate.
For the time being, he remains the undisputed frontrunner.
When voters were given a direct choice between Biden and Trump, the former president won by 46 points to 43.
However, the race is tight. All results have a margin of error of 3.1 points.
But they show where the momentum lies. Trump trailed Biden by two points in the first DailyMail.com poll in June, before holding a one-point lead in September and October.
Those polls show that Trump has gone from four points behind independents to two points ahead.
Meanwhile, Biden's overwhelming lead among young women has fallen from 12 points to two. And at the same time, white voters have increasingly shifted to Trump.
Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump attends a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa
Biden has struggled with questions about his age and voters continue to say they are concerned about the economy under his leadership, despite a series of key indicators that are all moving in the right direction.
His overall approval rating remains well underwater.
In contrast, Trump appears not to have been bothered by charges in four criminal cases in the past year.
Whether a conviction would ultimately remove his non-stick coating remains to be seen.
Our new poll offers more insight into the race. JL Partners also asked respondents for one word to describe each candidate's plans for a second term.
The results suggest that voters expect a miserable choice at the ballot box next year: a candidate seeking “revenge” versus a candidate who has no real plans for his second term.
Trump has used rally speeches and other appearances to rail against opponents. He has even sometimes adopted the idea of being a dictator as a way to get things done
JL Partners asked a thousand likely voters for the one word they associated with Joe Biden's plans for a second term. The results will make sobering reading for the president's campaign
For Biden, they suggest a candidate who fails to convey a clear manifesto to voters.
“Nothing” was by far the most popular word to describe what he wanted to achieve, with “economy” and “peace” coming next.
The results are very different for Trump, who may have been too successful in making his intentions clear.
The former president, who spends much of his time railing against opponents and critics, is associated with: 'Revenge', 'power' and 'dictatorship'.
“It captures the essence of this campaign quite accurately,” says author and conservative commentator Matt Lewis.