Donald Trump pleads not guilty. What happens next?
Donald Trump appeared before a judge in New York for the first time since becoming the only former president of the United States to face criminal charges.
Trump pleaded not guilty in Manhattan criminal court on Tuesday to 34 charges of falsifying business records related to three alleged hush money payments, including one to adult film star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign.
Trump, who waved to the crowd before entering the courthouse, was released after an hours-long arraignment.
Here’s what you need to know about the legal process and what comes next.
What is the next legal step?
Tuesday’s arraignment — in which the charges against the former Republican president were officially unsealed — is the beginning of what is known as “discovery.”
This refers to a period when prosecutors allow the defense team access to the evidence that investigators have gathered against a suspect.
With the next hearing in the Trump case currently scheduled for December 4, prosecutors and the defense will also have the opportunity to file a series of motions — requests for the court to make a decision on specific issues — prior to a trial.
Such motions may include a request that the charges be dismissed outright; challenges to specific pieces of evidence, or attempts to change the venue or fire a judge, which Trump surrogates have already indicated his legal team will pursue.
“They may ask for a location change because they don’t think you can get a fair trial in Manhattan,” Matthew Galluzzo, a former prosecutor with the New York district attorney’s office, told Al Jazeera. “This man [Trump] is very unpopular in Manhattan.”
Trump has also already claimed that Judge Juan Merchan, who recently presided over a criminal tax fraud trial involving the Trump Organization, “hate” him and was “hand-picked” by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who oversees the case.
Under the New York State court system, Mercan was randomly assigned.
“I also somehow see a motion to dismiss regarding the composition of the grand jury,” Galluzzo said, referring to the 24-member body that determined prosecutors had provided sufficient evidence to indict the former president.
“I expect they’ll make every move they can think of to delay this thing as much as possible.”
Will Trump be able to talk about the matter?
For now, yes.
U.S. judges have the power to impose a gag order on criminal proceedings, former federal prosecutor Ron Filipkowski explained. Legal observers have said it could happen at any time in this much-watched case.
While a gag order can have varying scope, Filipkowski told Al Jazeera that it is “basically a judge saying you can’t threaten, harass, harass, directly or indirectly through third parties, [or] intimidate the witnesses involved in the case, the prosecutors, the judge”.
Judge Merchan on Tuesday warned Trump against making statements that could cause further unrest or lead to violence against an official, but did not impose a gag order.
Such orders are relatively rare, as they can be considered to violate constitutional freedom of speech.
However, they have been used in a number of high-profile cases, including to prevent Trump ally Roger Stone from speaking publicly at his federal trial on charges that he obstructed a federal investigation into Trump’s 2016 campaign.
Stone was originally barred from discussing the case or attempting to influence public opinion in the “immediate vicinity” of the court, but the order was broadened after Stone posted a threatening message on social media about the judge in the case.
“That’s kind of the first big controversial thing because, obviously, [Trump’s] candidate for president and he wants to make an issue of this,” Filipkowski said. A violation would also likely result in Trump having to appear in court for a slap on the wrist — or more — ahead of trial.
“We don’t know what would happen if he commits a foul [a gag order]Filipkowski said. “But he can be held for contempt of court and have his parole revoked.”
How long does it take for the case to go to court?
While Trump could theoretically negotiate a plea deal with prosecutors and avoid trial — something that Galluzzo said would almost certainly require the former president to plead at least some guilt — his legal team is widely expected to steer clear of that route.
Prosecutors said they plan to ask for the trial to begin in January next year, the Reuters news agency reported Tuesday after Trump’s hearing, but the former president’s team suggested a spring 2024 start date.
There is no specific timeline for proceedings, although Galluzzo said criminal cases tend to move faster than civil cases.
“I think if this was a normal case it would be maybe a year, maybe shorter, maybe five months” before a trial starts, he said. “We’re all sitting here wondering, ‘Is this going to happen before the election next year?'”
The judge will ultimately determine when all “legitimate grounds for a stay” have been exhausted, Galluzzo said, and set a date for the trial to begin.
“I think normally a defendant wants to delay trials,” he said. “As witnesses become less reliable over time, memories fade…or maybe a witness comes on TV and starts saying things that undermine their own credibility.”
Will this be a jury trial?
Trump’s case will likely be a jury trial, though his defense team could potentially pursue a “bench trial,” in which the judge would serve as jury and make the final verdict, Galluzzo said.
The Public Prosecution Service would have to agree with that approach.
Otherwise, the jury selection process would begin before a trial and prosecutors and defense will have to agree on 12 jurors they believe to be impartial—a tall order in such a high-profile case.
Who is expected to testify?
Observers have said the case may feature headline testimony from key players, including Daniels and former Trump attorney Michael Cohen. They will probably cut through long stretches of sifting through piles of financial and banking documents.
A lawyer for Daniels — who claimed she had a sexual encounter with Trump in 2006, a claim the former president denies — tweeted in March that his client met with the Manhattan district attorney’s office and “agreed to to make himself available as a witness”.
One-time Trump confidant Cohen previously testified in his own federal tax evasion and fraud trial that Trump ordered him to pay Daniels $130,000 in exchange for her silence — another claim the Republican politician has publicly denied.
The indictment also listed a hush money payment to a former Trump Tower doorman, as well as a separate $150,000 payment to an unidentified woman who claimed to have had a sexual relationship with Trump — a possible reference to former Playboy model Karen McDougal.
Meanwhile, it will also be closely monitored whether Trump himself chooses to testify.
How long does it take to get a ruling?
When both the prosecution and defense rest, the jury will deliberate and make a verdict. Their deliberations can range from a few hours to several weeks.
If found guilty, Trump could theoretically be ordered to be held in custody before sentencing, though that will likely be based on the severity of the recommended sentence. A judge will eventually make a sentencing decision, and Trump’s team can then appeal.
Under New York state law, if the sentence includes jail time, the defense can request that the sentence be suspended — or frozen — until the appeals process is exhausted.
Will this affect the 2024 presidential election?
Trump, who is seeking re-election in 2024, will be required by law to be present at the trial even if the hearings fall in the heat of the presidential campaign season.
“I think it’s going to be a three to four week trial,” Filipkowski said. “Trump could be sitting in a courtroom every day for a month as he runs for president.”
And while the proceedings or potential jail time may hamper Trump’s campaign, as a native American citizen over the age of 35, Trump will be eligible to run for and be elected president of the United States, even if found guilty of allegations of crime.