A meteorologist who has correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election for four decades believes Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to win the November presidential election.
Professor Allen Lichtman of American University has accurately announced the winner of every presidential election since President Reagan’s re-election in 1984.
Lichtman has updated his tracker to President Biden dropped out of the race last week, leaving Vice President Harris to secure the necessary delegates to become the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.
Based on his model, which includes 13 factors (keys, as he calls them), the vice president is on track for victory this fall, with less than 100 days to go until Election Day.
Professor Allen Lichtman believes Kamala Harris is on track to win the November election over Donald Trump, despite shifts at the top of the Democratic presidential ticket
Lichtman’s model compares factors with the party currently in the White House, namely the Democrats.
He said he will make his official prediction for the election next month, but Harris has largely tipped his chances of victory in her favor.
Factors that gave Harris an edge include the fact that she faced no challenger in the primaries, that there has been little threat from third-party candidates so far, and that the economy is strong in both the short and long term.
With the switch to Harris, the White House has not made a major policy change, the vice president is not confronted with a scandal or major social unrest, and she has a less than charismatic opponent.
Lichtman noted that with the switch from Biden to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, Democrats have lost one advantage: their position as the sitting president.
Professor Allen Lichtman has successfully predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1984
Now that Harris and Trump are facing off, the professor believes the race is now effectively open.
However, he noted that Democrats were able to avoid further problems by having the party overwhelmingly rally behind Harris, thereby avoiding the need to embark on a chaotic open primary and allowing other presidential candidates to enter the race at this late stage.
“I haven’t made a definitive prediction yet. I’ve said I’m going to do it after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman told C-SPAN.
“But I’ve been saying for months, and I’ll keep saying, a lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose,” he added. “That could happen, but a lot would have to change.”
President Biden will speak on July 29, 2024. Professor Lichtman said the president’s withdrawal from the race on July 21 has not fundamentally changed his prediction so far about who will win the November election.
Lichtman also said the new energy put into Harris’ campaign could have a positive effect on several issues for her, including lower voting for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and further dampening social unrest.
“It’s a mixed bag, Biden dropping out and Harris presumptive,” he said. “But it changes my assessment that a lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose, not fundamentally.”
Lichtman’s prediction comes as polls show the presidential race remains very close, with Harris leading the pack.
According to Real Clear Politics, Trump is leading by an average of less than two points in the most recent polls.
Even in the polls in the key states, there is a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris, now that Biden is no longer on the Democratic list.
But the latest polls do show a jump in enthusiasm among Democrats, as Lichtman noted. Harris’ approval rating since becoming the presumptive presidential nominee has also risen in recent days.