Donald Trump extends lead over Kamala Harris in Daily Mail election model as key battleground state Michigan heads his way
- The DailyMail.com/JL Partners model shows several key states switching to Trump
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Former President Donald Trump has widened his lead in the Daily Mail’s election model, giving him the best chance yet of a victory over Kamala Harris in the November election.
A favorable poll in the critical swing state of Michigan, which put him one point ahead of his Democratic opponent, helped him to a lead of almost 18 points, two points more than last week.
But a lot can change in the final weeks of campaigning.
And with Trump at 58.8 percent of the win to Harris’ 41.1, the result remains largely in tossup territory.
However, the latest polling data now suggests Trump is on track to win 301 electoral college votes to Harris’ 236, the most decisive lead yet.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at JL Partners who is analyzing the numbers, said in his latest briefing note: ‘Things continue to move against Harris, with Trump’s odds of winning increasing by another two points since last week.
‘The difference in winning chances has now increased to almost 18 points.
“The fact that Michigan has moved into the Trump camp is significant and a major blow to the Harris campaign.
“New polls this week may temper this increasingly good news for Trump.”
The model weighs the latest polling data, along with 80 years of election results and economic statistics, to determine each candidate’s chances of winning in the Electoral College.
Overall, it predicts Harris has a much better chance of winning the popular vote (as Democrats have done in seven of the last eight elections).
At the same time, a series of recent polls show that critical swing states are moving toward the former president.
The most crucial of these might be a poll from Mitchell Research and Communications for Michigan News Source, which showed Trump overtaking Harris by one point in a head-to-head matchup.
Former President Donald Trump has his widest lead yet over Vice President Kamala Harris in our DailyMail.com/JL Partners election model, updated twice a week
If all other third-party candidates are included, they finish neck-and-neck at 48 percent each.
Last week, Michigan was seen as a shaky state by our model. The new poll shifts toward Trump, with him winning in 50.1 percent of simulations.
Among other states, Arizona is moving from “thin Trump” to “likely Trump,” and North Carolina has done the same, falling to the former president in 70.3 percent of simulations.
At the same time, a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday showed Harris regaining a national lead over Trump. That could change things in our model once this data is included.
Trump was in Michigan and Wisconsin late last week and will campaign in Pennsylvania on Wednesday.
Harris was also in Michigan last week and will visit Nevada and Arizona later this week.