Cut it any way you want: Donald Trump has made history in the 2024 Republican primaries.
No other non-incumbent Republican candidate has won the first two presidential nominations in the modern era — and Trump has done so with resounding victories in Iowa and New Hampshire.
The former president is at the top of the Republican party and seems unbeatable.
But former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley’s campaign has exposed a serious liability for the front-runner — and voters have raised another serious concern that may be almost entirely beyond Trump’s control.
NIKKI IS NOT GOING UP, NOT YET
New Hampshire was the most fertile ground Haley will get in this 2024 race, and she came up short. Yet the former governor continues to make shocking statements that do not correspond to reality.
Haley’s top supporter in New Hampshire, Gov. Chris Sununu, predicted in mid-December that she would win his state in a “landslide.”
At the time of writing, with 91% of the votes counted, she lost by more than 11 percentage points.
So when she took the stage at her campaign headquarters last night, after news networks began calling the race for Trump, the country collectively held its breath at her announcement.
Had she dropped out?
No!
When Haley took the stage at her campaign headquarters last night, after news networks began calling the race for Trump, the country collectively held its breath at her announcement. Had she dropped out?
Haley was defiant. She fretted about Trump’s mental acuity, expressed concerns about his impending lawsuits and demanded that Trump debate her. (Why would he start now?)
Haley says she will continue to compete during the Feb. 24 primary in her home state.
The question is…why?
TRUMP’S ‘INDEPENDENCE’ PROBLEM
According to CNN exit polls, 74 percent of ticketed Republicans chose Trump, while only 24 percent went for Haley.
Trump’s massive Republican-only number (which somewhat matches his national polling in the party) shows the difficult road ahead for Haley.
But New Hampshire allows unaffiliated voters to vote in the primaries of their choice, and Haley took advantage of that, winning over 66 percent of “undeclared” voters — known as independents.
That’s a red flag in the general election for Trump.
In a close battle with President Biden in November, independent voters can make a difference, and in New Hampshire, Haley held the key to their right to vote.
However, emerging states will not feature as many non-Republicans in the primaries. Many are closed primaries, where only party members can vote. And there’s another reason why Trump shouldn’t worry too much. Republican voters are angry about President Biden’s open border — and Trump owns the immigration issue.
According to CNN exit polls, 74 percent of ticketed Republicans chose Trump, while only 24 percent went for Haley.
Exit polls showed immigration ranking highly as a top issue for the Republican party’s primaries, and Trump was among those for whom it is of greatest concern, with 77 percent of those votes.
Expect an outpouring of support for Republican leadership in the coming days as elected party officials declare Trump the presumptive nominee.
Will Haley actually reach South Carolina on February 24?
Color me skeptical.
No one wants to take a beating in their own backyard and right now Haley is 30 points behind Trump in the Palmetto State polls.
VICE PRESIDENT HALEY? DON’T BET THAT
Is Haley looking for a VP spot? That’s a longshot.
Does she use the remaining donor money that is still in the campaign coffers?
That’s more likely.
Some conservative voices are still urging Trump to quickly choose a running mate, even as historically nominees wait until the summer, closer to their party’s convention, to announce their choice.
Who’s in the running?
Is Haley looking for a VP spot? That’s a longshot. Does she use the remaining donor money that is still in the campaign coffers? That’s more likely.
The campaign trail in New Hampshire resembled an audition with several people jumping on the Trump bandwagon, including former rivals South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
Rising GOP star, New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, was also in the mix.
And they will learn that when you stand behind the former president, you are completely in the spotlight.
IMPOSTER-OUS: TRUMP ANGRY IN VICTORY
If Trump was worried about rallying Haley’s moderate supporters, he showed it not last night.
After winning by double digits and effectively ending the Republican primaries for president in his favor, Trump was…annoyed!
Gone was the kindness toward his opponents that he displayed in the post-Iowa caucus speech, when he railed against Haley’s insistence that she fight on despite losing handily two in a row.
“Imposter,” Trump called her.
“In life you can’t let people get away with bull***,” he said. ‘You just can’t do that. When I looked at her, the beautiful dress, it probably wasn’t like that, I said, what is she doing? We won.’
After winning by double digits and effectively ending the Republican primaries for president in his favor, Trump was…annoyed!
Trump was so angry that he turned to Senator Scott, who had appointed Haley to the Senate years ago, and said, “You must really hate her.”
Scott rushed to Trump’s side and joked, “I just love you.”
Uncomfortable!
Get used to it, Tim.
THAT OTHER PESKY OPPONENT
Haley wasn’t the only losing candidate who refused to go quietly into the night on Tuesday.
In the Democratic primary, Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips won nearly 20 percent of the vote, with 90 percent of the votes counted.
That performance is about in line with pre-primary polls, but it doesn’t look good with a weak incumbent president leaking a fifth of the Democratic base.
Trump was so angry that he turned to Senator Scott, who had appointed Haley to the Senate years ago, and said, “You must really hate her.” Scott rushed to Trump’s side and joked, “I just love you.”
In the Democratic primary, Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips won nearly 20 percent of the vote, with 90 percent of the votes counted.
Phillips vowed to remain in the hunt during the South Carolina and Michigan primaries next month and beyond. And as a multi-millionaire who has invested a lot of his own money in his campaign, he has the courage to do that.
THE GREATEST KNOWN UNKNOWN
The biggest unknown in the 2024 election has little to do with primaries, debates or election night concession speeches.
Keep an eye on the courtrooms.
The timing matters as Trump goes on trial in Washington DC in the special counsel’s case on January 6, where he faces four serious criminal charges for allegedly attempting to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election.
The Supreme Court is investigating the Justice Department’s prosecution of the January 6 rioters, making Trump’s scheduled March 4 trial date appear highly doubtful.
The biggest unknown in the 2024 election has little to do with primaries, debates or election night concession speeches.
The question is: if the matter is postponed, will it happen before a general election is called?
Exit polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire show that a sizable group of voters — even some Republicans — say they would consider Trump “unfit” for the presidency if he were convicted of a crime.
What happens in that jury room could have more impact on Trump’s ability to win than any TV ad or strategy a nominee can come up with.
For now, the Republican primary seems settled, but it’s a long road to November, especially if it starts on January 24.