Did the North Koreans hit the plane – and why did the runway have a concrete wall? JANE FRYER on the nine crucial questions about the plane crash that killed 179 people

First there was the terrible weather and reports of a ‘wall’ of geese. Then an aborted first landing at Muan International Airport in South Korea.

Then came a catastrophic second attempt, with Jeju Air Flight 7C2216 careening down the runway, veering to one side and crashing into a concrete wall.

The impact was devastating: the Boeing 737-800 burst into a gigantic fireball while the surrounding area was littered with chairs, cushions, magazines, handbags and shoes.

Of the 181 people on board – mostly Korean nationals on their way home from the Thai capital Bangkok – only two cabin crew members survived. All others – including three generations of one family and the pilot – were killed.

Sunday’s tragedy marked South Korea’s deadliest aviation disaster in nearly three decades. But it has also thrown the global aviation industry into turmoil, as theories and counter-theories circulate.

Here, Jane Fryer, with the help of famed aviation safety expert Julian Bray, unravels the nine unanswered questions posed by the doomed South Korean plane.

COULD IT BE NORTH KOREAN SABOTAGE?

During the first, aborted descent, witnesses on the ground said they heard a bang and saw a ring of smoke rising from one of the wings.

In theory, this could have been caused by a bomb hidden in a suitcase in the hold, but such an explanation is highly unlikely. The plane could also have been hit by a missile.

Another possibility is that a highly trained service technician cut the hydraulic cables. But as Mr. Bray puts it, “Now we’re really getting into James Bond territory.”

Hijacking is also unlikely. Not least because the pilot’s pre-crash communications sounded calm and collected, without using any important security words or pressing any alarms.

But as unlikely as they may sound, researchers will have to explore all possibilities before they can rule them out.

WAS A ‘BIRD ATTACK’ REALLY THE CAUSE?

Bird strikes – collisions between an aircraft or drone in flight and a bird – are common. More than 1,400 bird strikes were reported in Great Britain in 2022, of which around 100 resulted in damage to the aircraft involved.

In this case, all signs point to a bird strike. There were reports of a ‘wall’ of geese in the area surrounding the airport and at 8.57am on Sunday morning air traffic control warned of bird activity in the area. Two minutes later, the pilot gave the call “mayday, mayday, mayday” and “bird strike, bird strike, go-around,” abandoning his first landing.

Around that time, a passenger messaged a family member to say they had seen ‘a bird trapped in the wing’ – this coincided with onlookers noticing the bang and a ring of smoke.

‘This could be because the engine builds up pressure after swallowing the bird, which is suddenly released. Or the engine could fail,” Mr Bray said.

“And one of the carbon fiber turbo fans could break and cut a hydraulic line (which controls the landing gear and brake plates).”

But a bird in the engine may only be part of the problem. To prevent these types of disasters, the hydraulic system has been deliberately split and there are also various backup systems in case a failure occurs.

WHY WAS THE SECOND LANDING ATTEMPT A DISASTER?

By the time the pilot circled for his second landing attempt, he knew he was in trouble.

There are two methods to slow a jet aircraft during landing. First, we use the flaps on the wings as an air braking system. These can be extended to a 45 degree angle to increase the surface area of ​​the wing and thus reduce speed.

Secondly, when the aircraft hits the runway, the ‘reverse thrust system’ acts as an air brake to bring the aircraft up to a safe speed.

Both have backup systems – automatic and manual – in case of an emergency.

However, it appears that none of these systems functioned properly during flight 7C2216, as the plane barreled down the runway at full speed and landed on its belly during an emergency landing as described in the booklet.

But because the pilot had no wheels, he couldn’t steer as the plane careened down the runway — or as it veered right toward the massive concrete wall and exploded in a huge fireball.

WHAT WAS A CONCRETE WALL DOING ON THE TRACK?

This wall housed an antenna base to help planes land in bad weather. Normally an antenna base near the runway would be collapsible, but this one had brick pillars and was filled with blocks.

Mr Bray explains: ‘There is an international code that governs the design of airports to keep them safe.

‘Typically, any barriers are limited to hedges and fencing with concrete posts, which would slow the aircraft but not destroy it on impact.

“This is very strange and needs to be investigated because it obviously shouldn’t have been here.”

WAS THERE A PROBLEM WITH THE PILOT?

There is currently no indication that the pilot was suicidal, but all options will be considered.

It is also not clear whether there were one or two pilots in the cockpit. Cost cutting by airlines has resulted in the ‘single-manning’ of some cockpits.

COULD THE JOB HAVE BEEN TO blame?

With a height of 2,800 meters, this was a long runway and would – under normal circumstances – be more than sufficient.

After the initially aborted landing, the pilot announced that he would go ’round’ and take the runway from the opposite direction. He did not ask the air traffic team, but simply informed them – probably because he could not turn the plane because the controls were unresponsive, Mr Bray suggests.

There’s nothing sinister about coming onto the runway from a new direction. All busy airports have two-way traffic.

At Heathrow, planes land in one direction before noon and the other way in the afternoon to avoid the sun.

In an emergency like this, air traffic controllers would have already cleared the runway and the area around it and put the fire engines on standby.

DID THE WEATHER PLAY A ROLE IN THE CRASH?

A severe weather warning had been issued, but experts see bad weather as a diversionary maneuver.

‘This was an experienced pilot with 9,800 flying hours. He knew what he was doing,” Mr Bray said.

COULD THE PLANE’S BLACK BOXES REVEAL ANYTHING?

Each aircraft has a voice data box and a data recorder on board. Collectively known as the black boxes, they are actually bright orange and were held high near the rear exit of this aircraft.

The Voice Data Box is a continuous recording device that stores and timecodes all cockpit conversations between the pilots and communications with air traffic control in the hour before the crash.

The data recorder records every movement the pilot makes – buttons pressed, switches, etc. – over the same period.

The recordings can take weeks to decode, but together they can help build a complete picture. However, in this case the data recorder is damaged, which may hinder the investigation.

What will happen in the aftermath?

No expense will be spared in the investigation to find out what went wrong – not least because there are 5,000 Boeing 737-800s flying around the world.

In addition to decrypting the black boxes and unraveling the plane’s last minutes, workers will rebuild the plane using a skeletal frame and whatever fuselage pieces they can salvage from the debris field.

By analyzing the fragments, a more complete picture can be built up. For example, if the shrapnel curves outward, this could indicate an explosion on board. If this is directed inward, it could be a sign of an external force, such as a missile.