Democrats trust Harris slightly more than Biden on climate change, AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON — As the Democratic National Convention approaches, a recent poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research concludes that Democrats have slightly more confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris’ ability to address the problem of climate change than in President Joe Biden.

The survey found that 85% of Democrats have “a great deal” or “some” confidence in Harris to tackle climate change, while about three-quarters say the same of Biden. That’s especially true among Democrats under 45: About three-quarters of this group say they have “a great deal” or “some” confidence in Harris to tackle climate problems, compared to about 6-in-10 who say the same of Biden. Older Democrats are more likely to trust Biden or Harris than younger Democrats.

The finding is an early indication that Democrats may be evaluating Harris on different terms, rather than seeing her as interchangeable with Biden on policy issues, including climate change, where many Democrats are concerned and want to see government action. It also reflects the broader satisfaction Democrats have with Harris as their party’s standard-bearer, and gives her a chance to appeal to younger Democrats, who are likely to be most concerned about climate change. Harris will face Republican candidate Donald Trump in the November election.

Aaron Hash, a 43-year-old Democrat and labor leader, said he listened to some of Harris’s speeches after Biden left office and thought, “Those are the right words. I’d like to see action follow through.” He believes the Democratic Party is “still a little bit behind” the Republican Party when it comes to fighting for key issues, including climate change, abortion access and gun control.

But Harris thinks he can change that.

“I’m hopeful that we’ll see some meaningful protections come back,” said Hash, who works in chemical manufacturing in Washington state. “I’d like to see Democrats hopefully retain control of the (executive branch) and then take back Congress and adopt some of the protections that were previously protected by Chevron,” referring to the recent decision that the power of agencies is limited such as the Environmental Protection Agency.

The problem of climate change is widely recognized among Democrats. The AP-NORC poll found that 9 in 10 Democrats say climate change is happening, and most say the primary cause is human activity. About 7 in 10 Democrats say they have become more concerned about climate change in the past year. And they want the government to take action on the issue: About 8 in 10 Democrats say the federal government is doing too little to mitigate climate change, compared with about 6 in 10 independents and about 3 in 10 Republicans.

Younger Democrats are feeling the emotional pressure of climate change the most. About 6 in 10 Democrats under 45 say “anxious” describes their emotions extremely or very well when they think about climate change, compared with about a third of older Democrats. Younger Democrats are also less likely to say they feel motivated or hopeful about climate change. About 7 in 10 younger Democrats say “hopeful” describes their emotions as “not very” or “not at all” well, compared with 45% of older Democrats.

Alex Campbell, a 29-year-old Democrat in Philadelphia, said there is “a lot of existential angst” among Millennials and Gen Z about what the world will look like in 50 years. Campbell gives Biden credit for the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Actand he thinks Harris would expand those efforts. He hopes that by having a younger Democrat at the top of the ticket, she would care more about the importance of tackling climate change head-on.

But Campbell is pessimistic that, even if elected, Harris can make meaningful progress on climate change without Democratic control of Congress. Like other Democrats, Campbell worries about the Supreme Court’s role in further eroding environmental protections.

“I would probably have more hope with Harris,” Campbell said. “Because she’s younger, I think she’ll be more aggressive in her policy proposals. But if there’s not a House and Senate that’s going to pass these bills, then it doesn’t matter as much.”

About half of Americans say the outcome of the November presidential election will be extremely or very important for the issue of climate change — and the issue of climate change is especially important for Democrats. About three-quarters of Democrats say the outcome of the 2024 election will matter to climate change, compared with 44% of independents and about 2 in 10 Republicans. Older Democrats are slightly more likely than younger Democrats to say this election will be extremely or very important for climate change.

Nikolas Ostergard, a 21-year-old construction worker in Utah, said he thinks Harris is a better communicator than Biden, and he believes that will allow her to have “even more impact” on issues important to Democrats, including climate change. As a Democrat running for president for the first time in November, Ostergard is still waiting for Harris to lay out her own environmental policies. He hopes she will “listen more” to the public than Biden did.

“At first I thought it wasn’t going to get much better with (Harris) because she was Biden’s vice president. But it seems like she’s taking different approaches, so my hopes are up,” Ostergard said. “My hopes for Harris’ policies are better than Biden’s. And definitely much higher than my hopes for Trump’s policies.”

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The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.