LOS ANGELES — Democrats have dominated California politics for years, but the power struggle between the parties ahead of Tuesday’s primaries could give Republicans an edge in swing districts of the U.S. House of Representatives, which are expected to help regain control Congress to determine.
In Southern California’s 47th District, which includes famous surfing beaches in Huntington Beach and Laguna Beach, Democrats Dave Min and Joanna Weiss and their respective supporters are bickering through a haze of back-and-forth charges over an arrest DUI and charges of profiteering from sexual predators.
In the Central Valley farm belt, bitter altercations between Democrats Rudy Salas and Melissa Hurtado in the 22nd District have raised fears within the party that two Republicans could end up on the November ballot, while Democrats would be thrown out.
With Republicans holding a 219-213 lead, with three vacancies, it’s hard to understate the stakes.
North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, head of the House Republican campaign arm, has called the 47th District “probably our best pick-up opportunity in the country.”
California places all candidates, regardless of party, on one primary ballot. The two who receive the most votes will advance to the general election in November. The potential for surprise is heightened by the potential for record-low turnout with those most likely to vote being older, white, conservative-leaning homeowners, the state’s most reliable voters.
“A nasty primary campaign can be dangerous, especially if the other party has a strong candidate in the general election,” political scientist Jack Pitney of Claremont McKenna College said of the 47th District. “It only takes a few percentage points to turn this seat from blue to red.”
As Democrats trade personal attacks and burn hundreds of thousands of dollars in campaign cash for the Orange County seat, the leading Republican, former lawmaker Scott Baugh, has been freed to spend his time reaching undecided voters.
Jon Fleischman, a former Republican Party executive director and informal Baugh adviser, predicted that if Min or Weiss reach the November ballot, it will be difficult for either to consolidate a divided Democratic base after a harsh campaign.
Former Democratic consultant Roger Salazar, who is not involved in either contest, said partisan infighting is never welcome, but “it is part of the democratic process.” He also noted that with the general election still far away, the dynamics in the two races will likely change after the primaries.
“I’ve always believed that hard fights make you stronger,” Salazar said.
The two contests fall among about 10 competitive House districts in California, likely to feature a handful of toss-ups in which the party controls the House. The decisive battle “will run through California,” has predicted Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking House of Representatives Democrat from Redlands, east of Los Angeles.
The array of competitive districts contrasts with the state’s reputation for lopsided politics. Democrats hold every statewide office, dominate the legislature and congressional delegation, and outnumber registered Republicans statewide by a 2-1 ratio.
Republicans are maintaining their political strength in Southern California’s suburbs and the state’s vast rural areas, including the Central Valley, known as America’s salad bowl for its abundant agricultural production.
The 47th District in the heart of Orange County was once a Republican precinct known as “Reagan Country” because of its ties to former Republican President Ronald Reagan. But like much of California, it gradually became more diverse and democratic. The seat is held by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, who is running for U.S. Senate and Min.
Weiss’ campaign and its supporters have drawn attention to Min’s arrest for drunk driving last year in Sacramento. Emily’s List, an advocacy group for Democratic women candidates who support abortion rights and which Weiss endorses, goes after Min on its website for “breaking promises and violating laws.” The group announced in January that it would spend $1 million on advertising to promote Weiss’ candidacy.
“Trust is important,” says an ad from Weiss, highlighting the arrest. Min has spoken with regret about what he calls “the worst mistake of my life.” He pleaded no contest and was sentenced to three years’ probation.
Min has taken out an ad claiming that Weiss, a lawyer, and her husband have “made millions” defending Catholic priests found guilty of abusing children, following a report in The Daily Beast that suggested that Weiss used the money to finance her campaign.
Weiss senior campaign adviser Mike McLaughlin said in a statement that “Min has to resort to lying about Joanna and her family because he knows he has lost the trust of Orange County voters.”
Her campaign says her husband, attorney Jason Weiss, has never defended a Catholic priest and the money loaned to the campaign came from a home equity line of credit.
In the Central Valley, Republican Rep. David Valadao is seeking another term in a Democratic-leaning district that Democrat Joe Biden won by double digits in the 2020 presidential race.
Valadao could find himself in a rematch with the Democrat he defeated in 2022, former lawmaker Rudy Salas, but Salas will face competition from fellow Democrat Melissa Hurtado, a state senator.
Salas is backed by national Democrats, but the potential for a divided Democratic vote in a low-turnout election has raised the possibility that Valadao could end up on the November ballot with another Republican, Chris Mathys, who is also running in 2022 candidate.
Salas has attacked Hurtado’s record on abortion rights; she has said he is distorting the facts.
“Leave it to a man like Rudy Salas to lie about my record – a woman’s – on reproductive freedom. He should be ashamed of himself,” Hurtado said in a statement.