Dead European satellite weighing 2,000 kg will crash back to Earth this month – and experts still don’t know where it will land

It has been floating above our planet for almost 30 years.

But a satellite launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) will finally crash back into Earth this month.

Launched from French Guiana in 1995, ERS-2 weighs just over 2,000kg – about the same as an adult rhino.

ESA experts say the craft will reenter the planet’s atmosphere in mid-February, although it is still unknown when and where exactly it will land.

The agency expects parts of the machine are ‘likely to fall into the ocean’ – and insists the risk of being injured by space debris is less than 1 in 100 billion.

“The European Remote Sensing 2 (ERS-2) satellite will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and begin burning up in mid-February 2024,” the agency said in a statement.

‘It is impossible to predict exactly when and where the satellite will start to burn up.

‘The period in which return is possible will continue to shrink until the moment of return.’

ESA said it is monitoring the satellite “very closely” along with international partners and will provide regular updates in the days leading up to its return.

The ERS-2 satellite was launched in April 1995 from ESA’s Guyana Space Center near Kourou, French Guiana, to study Earth’s land surfaces, oceans and polar caps.

After fifteen years, the spacecraft was still functioning when ESA declared the mission complete in 2011.

After the deorbitation maneuvers used up the satellite’s remaining fuel, ground control experts began lowering the altitude from about 785 km to 573 km.

The experts wanted to minimize the risk of collisions with other satellites or increase the cloud of ‘space junk’ currently orbiting our planet.

Since then, ERS-2 has been in a period of ‘orbital decay’, meaning it is gradually getting closer and closer to Earth as it orbits the planet.

ERS-2 will re-enter Earth’s atmosphere and burn up once its altitude decreases to about 50 miles (80 km) – about a fifth of the distance of the International Space Station.

At this altitude it will break into fragments, the vast majority of which will burn up in the atmosphere.

However, some fragments could reach the Earth’s surface, where they will “most likely fall into the ocean,” according to ESA.

“None of these fragments will contain toxic or radioactive materials,” the agency said.

While ESA cannot guarantee that there is no chance of ERS-2 hitting anyone, ESA has indicated that the annual risk of even one human being injured by space debris is less than one in 100 billion.

That is about 1.5 million times lower than the risk of dying at home in an accident and 65,000 times lower than the risk of being struck by lightning.

Worryingly, ESA describes the event as a ‘natural’ reentry, as ground crews cannot control the event during descent.

“ERS-2 consumed the last of its fuel in 2011 to minimize the risk of a catastrophic explosion that could have created a large amount of space debris,” the agency said.

‘The batteries were dead and the communications antenna and electronics on board were disabled.

“There is no longer a way to actively control the movement of the satellite from the ground during its descent.”

ERS-2 was launched in 1995 as a follow-up to its sister satellite, ERS-1, which had been launched four years earlier.

Both satellites were equipped with the latest high-tech instruments, including a radar altimeter (which sends pulses of radio waves to the ground) and powerful sensors to measure ocean surface temperatures and offshore winds.

ERS-2 had an additional sensor to measure the ozone content of our planet’s atmosphere, which is important for blocking radiation from the sun.

ERS-1 is no longer operational due to a malfunction in 2000, but its exact location is unknown.