Dawn breaks as my train bumps into Pasazhyrskyi station, punctual as ever. This time, however, I am not greeted by a swarm of Russian drones (as on my last visit), nor by the adenoidal whine of an air raid siren (which happens on every visit).
It’s spring and the sun is shining in Kiev. The frost-covered sidewalks of February have turned into sun-drenched avenues filled with groups of laughing teenagers. The war continues, but under a cloudless sky.
When Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, his generals assured him they would win the war in three days. Some 809 days later, they’re still trying.
On Friday, Putin launched a brazen surprise attack on Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, which is predominantly Russian-speaking and just 30 kilometers from the border. Capturing the city, which had been in the hands of the Ukrainians for over a year, would be a huge propaganda coup. After heavy fighting, the Russians claim they have now captured nine villages in the region.
Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, was undeterred in a recent interview. “Our problem is very simple,” he told the Economist magazine. ‘We have no weapons. They always knew that April and May would be a difficult time for us.”
We in the West must take some responsibility for this growing war-weariness. Pictured: a Ukrainian soldier and tank
He is right. Traveling around the country in recent months, I have met many Ukrainians who unapologetically say that they now refuse to die in “Zelensky’s war.”
Morale has dropped – and with it the will to fight. People wonder why they would risk their lives when so many people are dying without results; while so many bribe their way out of conscription; and while so many promised Western weapons do not arrive.
They have a point. Without NATO support, Russia would undoubtedly have conquered Ukraine. But as time has passed, obtaining that help has become a never-ending struggle.
When the U.S. Congress last month finally approved a $61 billion military aid package to Ukraine, which had been stalled for months due to Republican intransigence, Ukrainian officials I spoke with were relieved.
But there was also sadness. The delay has cost so many lives and the task of pushing Russia back is now much more difficult.
At the front, the troops are satisfied but cautious. “This is of course good news,” says a friend of mine who fights in the east. “But we have to make sure that Kiev distributes the weapons properly. That it gives the right equipment to the right people fighting in the right places. And that wasn’t always the case before.’
Putin understands that the West will give Ukraine just enough weapons to keep him at bay, but never enough to actually push his troops back across the border. Pictured: Destroyed buildings in Bakhmut, Ukraine
We in the West must take some responsibility for this growing war-weariness. As one Ukrainian officer said to me in late 2022, “If our partners had given us what we asked for in April, we could have finished this in June. If we had gotten in September what we asked for in July, we could have broken through in October.’
So why didn’t we give the Ukrainians everything they needed? The truth is that the West is still strangely unwilling to win wars. We know we have to defeat our enemies, but we want to do that and win their ‘hearts and minds’ at the same time.
In Iraq and Afghanistan, we hoped to defeat Saddam (and subsequently the militias that replaced him) and the Taliban, respectively, while taking the Iraqi and Afghan populations with us. This was naive and we failed on both counts.
A similar impulse is at play in Russia, but it is compounded by something pernicious. We are being held hostage by what US sources tell me is US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s near obsession with ‘escalation management theory’.
Ukrainian rescue workers work in the courtyard of a residential building damaged as a result of a rocket attack in Dnipro
Simply put, Sullivan believes that any hint of escalation must be “managed.” He is therefore willing to arm Ukraine, but not to an extent that provokes Putin too much. If this sounds crazy, that’s because it is. And that is why, even before Republicans began opposing aid packages, much Western military aid was both inadequate and late.
There are many valid criticisms of Israel’s behavior in Gaza, but one comment I have is that Israel is waging a traditional form of war, where the goal is total victory. And for this the enemy – Hamas – must be utterly defeated, not courted at the same time. This way of fighting has become foreign to us.
Putin understands that the West will give Ukraine just enough weapons to keep him at bay (until the recent massive slowdown puts even that in doubt), but never enough to actually push his troops back across the border.
On Friday, Putin launched a brazen surprise attack on Ukraine’s second city, Kharkiv, which is predominantly Russian-speaking and just 30 kilometers from the border.
But we are not giving up on Ukraine yet. Two weeks ago, Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron visited Kiev to promise Britain would provide £3 billion a year to Ukraine for as long as necessary. But more than that, he said it is up to Ukraine to decide how the British weapons it has received will be used – including attacking targets on Russian territory.
Cameron seems to realize that attempts to appease Putin only embolden him. The dictator must feel the costs of his murderous imperialism – and those costs must be felt most keenly on Russian soil.
For now, however, the momentum remains with the Kremlin. On Tuesday, the Ukrainians discovered another Russian assassination plot against President Volodymyr Zelensky, from within the ranks of his own protection unit.
Meanwhile, Russia’s latest war crime involves forcing Ukrainians in conquered areas to serve in the Russian army under the guise of ‘conscription’. Without any training, these unfortunate people often find themselves in a trench on the front line within a week, fighting against their own countrymen.
We are being held hostage by what American sources tell me is that US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is almost obsessed with ‘escalation management theory’.
And who knows what could happen if Donald Trump – who has repeatedly indicated his unwillingness to pay for military aid – takes back the White House in November. It’s time to be realistic. Unfortunately, thanks to Western cowardice, Ukraine may already be past the point of winning this war outright. The latest injection of Western weapons should help them counter further Russian advances – but not reverse them. The impasse appears to continue.
It remains politically impossible for Zelensky to publicly offer terms. Would a British Prime Minister ever agree to hand over Manchester or Leeds to the enemy for the sake of peace?
But the status quo is unsustainable. I expect there will be more and more talk of a ‘truce’ in the coming months. Prior to such a cessation of hostilities, Kiev must ensure as many favorable facts on the ground as possible – both in terms of territory and the capabilities of its armed forces.
Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron, pictured with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, visited Kiev to pledge Britain would provide £3 billion a year to Ukraine for as long as needed
As I walk through Kiev’s Independence Square, near where I lived during the aftermath of the 2014 revolution against Ukrainian pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych, I am struck by the fact that Ukraine is now the front battalion of Western deterrence .
Never forget that it is not only Putin who will be deterred from sending billions of dollars in aid to Kiev, but also China’s Xi Jinping and the Iranian mullahs.
We are now in a war against transnational autocracy. For the time being, Ukrainian men are dying at the front, so ours is not necessary.
One day that could change. In the meantime, we must never forget the debt we owe to the Ukrainians. And we must not abandon them. Our own future depends on it.