DAN HODGES: How Nigel Farage COULD become Prime Minister. With Tory wipe-out guaranteed, this chain smoking populist now has a plausible path to Downing Street…

Oh, how they laughed. When asked on Monday whether his intention was to campaign for outright power in 2029, Nigel Farage was clear. “Yes, absolutely,” he told the BBC. He planned to “build a beachhead in the commons” in this election and then, over the next five years, build a “major national campaign movement across the country for real change.”

The answer was mockery. “Ridiculous,” said outgoing minister Michael Gove. “Don’t be silly,” exclaimed Tony Blair’s biographer John Rentoul.

They’re wrong. Our political establishment may not want to hear it. But with just two weeks left in the campaign, the Reform leader now has a clear and credible path to Downing Street.

In the first phase he wins in Clacton. And that seems like a formality at the moment. According to a projection published yesterday by pollster Ipsos, Farage is at 52 percent, while Labor is way back at 24 percent. The bookmakers give him a 1-5 lead to win the Essex seat. Yesterday he packed the 820-seat Princes Theater in an event that one journalist compared to a rock concert.

Phase two is even easier to navigate, as it involves a Tory eradication (guaranteed), followed by a realignment to the right (also inevitable). The current state of government was summed up perfectly by Mel Stride’s performance during this morning’s media round. The fact that the hitherto anonymous Secretary of State for Work and Pensions is now regularly dispatched to act as a kind of political pinata tells its own story.

But if anyone didn’t understand the message, Stride spelled it out himself. “You could see a Labor government with 450 or 460 seats, the largest majority in the history of this country,” he helpfully explained.

Once that destruction has occurred, the remnants of the Conservative Party will draw a single, simple conclusion. That they can never campaign again if their electoral coalition is divided in two.

Many Tory MPs are not even prepared to wait for that outcome. Last week it emerged that former minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns was distributing campaign literature, with photos of her at Nigel Farage’s birthday party on the front. When challenged, a spokesperson said: ‘She finds it regrettable that party leaders have not been able to see the bigger picture in uniting the right to stop a socialist supermajority. After the election, Conservative MPs will need to work together with a wider Conservative movement to achieve their goals.”

Jenkyns echoes the views of many of her colleagues. Therefore, this will almost certainly be the last general election fought by the Conservative Party as currently constituted. The New Conservatives or the Reformed Conservatives will appear on the ballot paper in 2029. And when that realignment happens, phase three of Nigel Farage’s five-year master plan will fall neatly into place.

Because once the new party is established, Farage becoming its leader will be as inevitable as the next day. Whoever is chosen as Rishi Sunak’s immediate replacement will have been forced to contact the reform leader and bring him into the Tory fold. And if they do, it will be a similar scenario to the one we saw when Theresa May brought Boris into her cabinet. Everything the new Conservative leader does will be viewed through the prism of ‘what is Nigel thinking?’ He will slowly but surely consume their political oxygen. And then, when the time comes, delete and replace.

Farage’s sharply dressed shoes included these patriotic-looking socks

Crowds of Reform fans at the Meet Nigel Farage event in Clacton. Farage will soon be the official leader of the opposition, with all the status that office bestows, writes Dan Hodges

Former minister Dame Andrea Jenkyns distributes campaign literature with photos of her attendance at Nigel Farage’s birthday party

At that point, all bets are off. Farage will become the official leader of the opposition, with all the status that office bestows. And the only thing standing between him and power will be Keir Starmer.

Yes, the new Labor government will almost certainly win a large majority. But it will also face a huge set of challenges. An ailing economy, record taxes, unprecedented borrowing, crumbling public services, zero budget space. This will be Starmer and Reeves’ legacy. Small boats. Putin. China. President Trump, the sequel. A revived European Right. A crisis in higher education. Wokery is running rampant. A crisis of public order. Betrayal at the Red Wall. Blue Wall suspicion and resentment. A Corbynite uprising. Resurgent Welsh and Scottish nationalism.

A single misstep by Starmer or perhaps a black swan event is all that is needed to fatally undermine his premiership. At that moment, the famous door to number 10 swings open.

Is this all predetermined? No. Conservatives could look at the way Donald Trump has hijacked American republicanism and turn their backs on Farage’s Faustian allure. Boris could return to take on Farage in a gripping Tory version of Kong v Godzilla. Starmer can go on and on and patiently grind Farage and his populism into the dust.

But make no mistake: the chain-smoking populist now has a plausible path to power.