Daily Mail election mockup reveals Trump has surpassed Kamala Harris… and shows how RFK Jr. stepping down gives Donald the keys to the state
- DailyMail.com/JL Partners’ election model will track polls every day
- It processes the latest polls and decades of data to predict the election winner
- READ MORE: Follow the latest developments of the day on our live blog
The latest polls have tipped the Daily Mail’s election model in Donald Trump’s favour, giving him a decisive lead over Kamala Harris, a day before he faces his Democratic rival on the debate stage.
The algorithms show he now has a 55 percent chance of becoming president, an increase of 4.5 percentage points from last week.
The model works by taking all the latest polls (national and state), along with decades of historical trends and economic data. The results are then fed to the Electoral College to determine who is most likely to receive the 270 votes needed to win the election.
Our results come hot on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College poll that gave Trump a one-point lead over the weekend, suggesting Harris’ honeymoon is coming to an end.
When we factor this and other recent research into the model that JL Partners developed for us, it turns out that the crucial battleground of Pennsylvania has now shifted clearly in Trump’s direction.
Trump’s chances of winning have risen from a 50 percent chance to a 60 percent chance, thanks in large part to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to end his independent race.
And there’s more bad news for the vice president in the so-called “Blue Wall.”
Once again, it comes down to RFK Jr. and the impact of removing his name from the ballots in Michigan.
Harris’ chances of winning that swing state have dropped from 64 percent to 52 percent.
However, there is also good news for the vice president.
Her chances of success in Wisconsin have increased from a 55 percent chance of winning to a 63 percent chance.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said the momentum is clearly with Trump now.
‘While the race remains incredibly exciting, he is increasing his chances of victory. He is doing this through the Sun Belt, but also through Pennsylvania.
“A big part of the movement is due to changes in who is on the ballot in each state. As things stand now, RFK Jr. has been removed from the Michigan ballot. If that holds, it would significantly weaken Harris in the state.
The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will remain exciting until the very end
“This is our final update before Tuesday’s presidential debate. The implications for the model — and the race — could be significant.”
Overall, the model suggests Trump is on track for 287 electoral votes, while Harris is on track for 251.
But Harris is predicted as the candidate with the greatest chance (65 percent) of winning the most votes.
The model is updated weekly with the latest data, showing the changing contours of the race for the White House through Nov. 5.
A decisive moment comes on Tuesday when Harris takes on Trump in a televised debate.