Cricket World Cup: How England can still qualify for semi-finals despite five group losses in India

By James On Oct 30, 2023

England’s Cricket World Cup hopes hang by a thread as they endure a nightmarish defense of their title in India, although there is still a mathematical chance they will go through and make an unlikely late push for the semi-finals.

The 2019 champions have lost five of their first six matches – their last 100-point loss to tournament hosts India – and sit bottom of the 10-team table with two points, with only the top four sides progressing beyond the group stages.

England were also defeated by New Zealand in their group opener, the same two sides who played in the final four years earlier, before following up a solitary win over Bangladesh with a shock 69-run defeat to Afghanistan.

A dismal 229-run defeat to South Africa followed, England’s record ODI defeat by runs, then an emphatic eight-wicket loss to Sri Lanka and the heavy defeat to India continued their forgettable campaign.

How can England still qualify?!

The round-robin format gives England three more matches to collect points and move up the table, with draw wins taking them to eight points and with an outside chance of still reaching the knockout stages – depending of how other teams perform.

There is a good chance that net run-rate will determine the final qualification spots, which are calculated by using the average runs per over scored by a team and then subtracting the average runs per over scored against them.

This metric is used when teams remain level on points at the end of the group stage, with the side having the best net run-rate in that scenario and subsequently qualifying, while England (-1,652) are in dire need of improvement as they the worst of all 10 teams.

What happens before England play?

Afghanistan and Sri Lanka face each other on Monday, where the winner will take six points from six matches, while a defeat for Bangladesh against Pakistan on Tuesday would see them become the first side to have their semi-final hopes mathematically ended comes.

Bangladesh are currently in the same situation as England and have two points from six matches. So they need to win all three remaining matches and hope that a number of scenarios will work in their favor to have any chance of reaching the semi-finals.

A win for Pakistan would take them to six points, with South Africa (10 points) then having the chance to beat India at the top of the table when they play third-placed New Zealand (eight points) on Wednesday .

India are all but guaranteed a place in the semi-finals but will mathematically secure a place in the last four with victory over Sri Lanka on Thursday, while the Netherlands will likely have to build on their shock victory over Bangladesh when they take on Afghanistan on Friday .

What are England’s chances then?

England take on arch-rivals Australia on Saturday, who have won their last four matches and scored 367 runs or more when batting first in their last three games, needing nothing less than a win to keep their slim qualification hopes alive.

A win would move England to four points and give them an outside chance of qualification with games against the Netherlands on November 8 and Pakistan on November 11, although Buttler’s side still need a dramatic improvement from their current net run rate of -1.652 .

Even if England go on to win again, they will need both Australia and New Zealand to lose all three remaining matches to have a chance of tying for the final semi-finals.

Australia and New Zealand are both on eight points, the most England can reach, so one win for either team is enough to officially end all hopes for the defending champions.

Should the unthinkable happen and both teams lose all their remaining matches, here’s just one scenario in which England could still – via a cricketing miracle – mathematically sneak through in terms of net run rate…

Correct as of October 29, assuming India and South Africa are two of the teams to reach the semi-finals and England significantly improve their net run percentage with three big wins:

Sri Lanka – Beat Afghanistan, lose to India, beat Bangladesh, beat New Zealand – 10 points
England – beat Australia, beat Netherlands, beat Pakistan – Eight points
New Zealand – loses to South Africa, loses to Pakistan, loses to Sri Lanka – Eight points
Australia – Lose to England, Lose to Afghanistan, Lose to Bangladesh – Eight points
Pakistan – lose to Bangladesh, beat New Zealand, lose to England – Six points
Bangladesh – Beat Pakistan, lose to Sri Lanka, beat Australia – Six points
Afghanistan – Lose to Sri Lanka, Lose to Netherlands, Beat Australia, Lose to South Africa – Six points
Netherlands – beat Afghanistan, lose to England, lose to India – Six points

Unthinkable? Yes. Far-fetched? Yes. Miraculous? Yes. Downright impossible? Almost certainly. But it’s pretty much mathematically possible right now.

What’s at stake if they don’t qualify?

It has emerged that places for the 2025 Champions Trophy will be allocated based on performance in this competition, with hosts Pakistan joined by the top seven finishers, meaning England will need to improve their position in the final three matches.

England head coach Matthew Mott admitted he was not aware of the qualification process until the defeat to India, telling reporters after that loss: “The ICC changes the rules quite a bit with qualifying, but to be honest I don’t think this would be the case.” affects the way we played in this tournament in any way, so it’s not that big of a deal.

“It’s enough motivation for us to get ourselves off the canvas again and keep trying to throw punches. It gives us a lot of the focus we need to make sure we can’t just ‘show up’. win these games.”

What’s next?

Watch the Cricket World Cup match on Monday Afghanistan will take on Sri Lanka in Pune. Both sides have four points from five matches (two wins, three losses), with Sri Lanka ahead of Afghanistan on net run-rate. England are next in action on Saturday, against Australia in a must-win match (8am on Sky Sports Cricket, start 8.30am).

Watch every match of the Cricket World Cup live on Sky Sports between now and the final on Sunday, November 19 – or stream without a contract via NOW.