Could Wagner really invade Poland and trigger WW3? What an attack on key land corridor could mean for the UK, Europe and Russia’s war in Ukraine

They were a thorn in Ukraine’s side in Bakhmut, and now the Wagner group will become a headache for NATO as the bloodthirsty paramilitaries threaten the eastern flank.

Having been transferred to Belarus after Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed coup, Putin’s allies now boast that the mercenaries are eager to invade Poland.

Warsaw’s army is much larger than Wagner, so threats to march on the Polish capital or a major military base have been largely dismissed, but a more disturbing idea is that they could attack a narrow strip of land known as the Suwalki Gap.

Even a small attack on the area – sandwiched between Poland, Lithuania and Kaliningrad – could cause huge problems for NATO and possibly culminate in World War III.

Here, MailOnline tells you everything you need to know about the latest Wagner threat.

A fighter of the private mercenary group Wagner stands guard on a street near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023

What is the Suwalki Gorge?

The Suwalki Gap – also called the Suwalki Corridor – is a 40-mile wide strip along the Polish-Lithuanian border that is named after the largest city in the region.

Poland and Lithuania have previously fought for control of the region, but today it is part of Poland and is the only land border between mainland Europe and the Baltic states.

Despite its strategic importance, the area is remote, with only one railway line and two major highways – one of which is single carriageway – crossing it.

It consists largely of rolling hills covered with farmland, sparse forest and a few small villages.

That means the area is hard to reach for an army that isn’t already stationed there, and equally hard to defend, with little natural cover or choke points.

Why would Russia attack it?

The Baltic states have long been seen as NATO’s Achilles’ heel – the region easiest for Putin to attack and hardest for the alliance to defend.

Fears of a Baltic invasion have increased since the war in Ukraine began, and if Putin tried, blocking the Suwalki Gorge would likely be his first move.

Although thousands of NATO troops, including British soldiers, are currently deployed in the Baltics, they are only intended as a stumbling block.

Their role is to hold off any invading force until the main NATO army can arrive.

Russia’s success in the Baltics therefore hinges on whether the army never arrives – or arrives too late to make a difference.

Reducing the Suwalki Gap makes it much more difficult to get reinforcements from Poland and Germany – where the largest NATO bases are – to the Baltic states.

Conversely, it makes it much easier for Russian reinforcements to move around by creating a land bridge between Belarus and Kaliningrad – Putin’s heavily militarized headland on the Baltic Sea.

Moscow knows this and is said to have practiced with Belarusian troops to close the Suwalki Gap during the 2021 Zapad War Games.

The Suwalki Gorge would be so crucial to a Russian attack on the Baltics that the sleepy rural area has been called “the most dangerous place on earth.”

Belarusian soldiers of the Special Operations Forces (SOF) and mercenaries of the private military company Wagner pose for a photo

Is Wagner a serious threat?

While the chances of a Wagner attack on the region are slim, it is technically possible – and it’s exactly the kind of threat experts have been warning about for years.

Ukraine believes that there are currently about 5,000 Wagner fighters stationed in Belarus and that Russia has largely taken away their heavy weapons and tanks.

They are vastly outnumbered by Polish, Lithuanian and NATO forces, numbering more than 150,000 with tanks, heavy artillery, attack aircraft and warships.

Attacking and holding the Suwalki Gap would therefore be next to impossible.

But as Ben Hodges, former NATO commander in Europe, suggested back in 2018, that wouldn’t necessarily be the goal.

Instead of attacking and occupying the gorge, Lieutenant General Hodges warned that Russia could deploy “conclusively deniable armed mercenaries” like Wagner to conduct “limited or temporary raids.”

If Wagner started skirmishing in the area – like the partisans fighting in Russia’s own Belgorod region – then it would make the border much more difficult to use.

Damage to the highways or railway could have the same effect as closing the border, even if Wagner did not occupy any territory.

Second, in the event of skirmishes, Poland would likely invoke Article 5 and require all NATO allies to respond, which other Eastern European states would almost certainly support.

But Western allies, especially France and Germany, may be reluctant given the potential for retaliation from Russia and the fact that any Wagner force is likely to be small.

That threatens to undermine NATO unity, which has already frayed between East and West over Ukraine, and would strengthen Russia’s position in Europe.

Third, an attack by Wagner would raise questions about how to respond.

Putin has admitted that the Russian state funded the group, but now claims to have cut them off and would almost certainly deny responsibility for their actions in the future.

Although Wagner is based in Belarus, Lukashenko would have no influence over how or where the group operates and is likely to distance himself as well.

NATO therefore risks looking like the aggressor if it responds by attacking Russia or Belarus, which both countries will almost certainly exploit for propaganda purposes.

A fighter of the Russian Wagner mercenary group conducts training for Belarusian soldiers on a range near the town of Osipovichi, Belarus, July 14, 2023

Fighters of the private mercenary group Wagner withdraw from the headquarters of the Southern Military District to return to base in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023

But knocking back Wagner while dodging either country will be difficult – especially when fighters operate as guerrillas in their territory.

Finally, such skirmishes could allow Russia to use the gap as a bargaining chip.

If NATO chooses to respond with force, Putin could threaten to escalate under the guise of protecting Kaliningrad – where he is believed to have nuclear weapons stationed.

But he could also offer to “intercede” and end any Wagner incursion, provided NATO pressured Ukraine to sign a generous peace deal.

Could it trigger World War III?

In a word: Yes.

Any armed incursion by Wagner into Poland or Lithuania – both NATO members – would almost certainly provoke a military response.

That may not initially mean attacking Russia or Belarus, but the situation could easily escalate to the point where direct fighting breaks out.

Joe Biden previously described that scenario as “World War III.”

British troops will likely be on the front line of that war, as 800 of them are currently in Estonia – one of the three Baltic states – and dozens more in Poland.

While NATO would have been expected to win that conflict, the devastation and death toll would likely be comparable to the bloodiest wars in history.

Especially since both sides are armed with thousands of nuclear warheads.

Opening a second front against NATO while the war in Ukraine is raging seems like an unlikely move for Putin, but experts warn it cannot be ignored.

As John R. Deni of the Atlantic Council think tank warned last year: “Some thought it illogical that Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine…

“The West cannot assume that Russia will not take action against the Suwalki Corridor just because it seems illogical.”