Conor McGregor has won just once in SEVEN YEARS but still looms large over the UFC… 2024 will make or break his future as a top fighter, with the eyes of the world on Notorious’ comeback

It's a testament to Conor McGregor's staying power that even after a two-and-a-half year absence, he's still the UFC's biggest star.

The controversial, charismatic Irishman has seen 2023 pass without putting on the gloves that made him rich beyond his wildest dreams, and his absence looms large.

The problem is that McGregor has only won once in the octagon since 2016 and he fights when he wants, which doesn't happen that often.

His rise was incredible. Two titles were won, movies were made and a crossover fight with Floyd Mayweather captured the world's attention.

But the drop-off was just as spectacular. Inactivity and a single win over the now retired Donald 'Cowboy' Cerrone from three losses took some of the shine off McGregor as a competitor.

The sparkle remains with celebrity McGregor, a marketing genius who has used his time outside the cage to boost his bank balance through business rather than fighting pursuits.

But his truancy has cast a shadow over the UFC and a question about McGregor is never far from any press conference, regardless of the event.

Dana White's standard response this year has been that it's hard for a man as rich as McGregor to find the hunger to fight.

Filming The Ultimate Fighter as a coach opposite Michael Chandler, against whom he would make his comeback at middleweight in June, turned out to be a false dawn.

The series aired in the summer and was intended to be the perfect hype machine that they would hit at the end of this year.

The days flew by when McGregor had not enrolled in USADA's testing program and it became clear that he would not be seen again in 2023. Chandler knows this will be the best payday of his career and is willing to wait.

“I've seen Conor talk about other opponents,” Chandler told the MMA Hour. 'I've seen Conor talk about several dates. I have seen Conor talk, completely reject me and act as if fighting with me is not possible.

“These are all ways these guys are trying to get into people's heads. Unfortunately for them, your boy is bulletproof, okay? So we're good. So we stick to the plan.

'We are exactly where we need to be. I've now had a year, more than a year, to think about and visualize knocking out Conor, watch all his tapes and see the training footage coming out. I see him training, I see him coming back.

He continued, “It is understood that he has joined USADA and has been reinstated into the USADA testing pool. He won't unless he actually comes back. So he's trying to wait me out, smoke me out, but I'm still here waiting, man.

“The greatest comeback in martial arts history, it's going to be through one man – and his name is Michael Chandler.”

The 'greatest comeback in combat sports history' is certainly how McGregor's return will be sold. If he fights in the summer, he will be out of action for three years, which is a significant portion of his prime.

McGregor's problems stemmed from the grim leg break in his trilogy fight against Dustin Poirier. After being well beaten in his rematch against the American, fans were desperate to see if there was any life left in him in their third fight in July 2021.

But they were denied a satisfying conclusion after McGregor staggered backwards and collapsed over a broken bone. A long surgery and rehabilitation followed, but even when he made a full recovery, no comeback announcements were made.

“April is a good start for me and I would be happy with that,” McGregor said in Saudi Arabia in November.

'I'm in a good place, I trained and I left. But I've been training and April seems like a good time to come back.”

That would coincide with UFC 300 and it would be almost unthinkable for the historic card to take place without the biggest star in the sport.

His manager Audie Attar also recently told MMA Junkie, “If it were up to him, he would fight on Saturday.

“So at the end of the day, we're just trying to make sure we do everything right and follow all the standard procedures to get him back in the octagon as quickly as possible.

“UFC 300 would be great, and of course we're doing everything we can to make that happen. Ultimately, it will be an exciting 2024 for his return.”

McGregor himself has never given a reason as to why it has taken so long for him to return, suggesting that White's response is correct and that the motivation is not what it once was.

His ever-expanding family expanded to six with the birth of his fourth child earlier this month and McGregor poured more of himself into business interests than during his meteoric rise.

But it looks like fans will finally see McGregor fight in 2024.

There will be huge interest, not just because of his profile, but because it's a mystery how good McGregor is now at 35. Can he still be the supremely confident striking maestro who took gold at featherweight and lightweight?

It's hard to believe at this point. The Dubliner fought three times in 2015, three times in 2016 and then just four more times in the next seven years.

He has stayed in shape, but also enjoyed a party life, often depicted with a cigar and a glass of stout or whiskey of his own brand in hand.

Against hungry opponents desperate to add his name to their resume, it's not a winning formula. And despite all the pay-per-view buys his return will bring, McGregor has to win.

Chandler has lost three of his last four and McGregor would put the UFC in a corner in terms of giving him credible matches if he loses.

It will be harder to get McGregor to fight the very best, and at that point he may well think living on his Lamborghini yacht is a sensible option.

So a lot depends on his next fight. Maybe that's why it takes so long to make.

McGregor has already completed the fight game. He has his health, wealth and happiness in his mid-30s, but the competitive incentive is still there. Next year will show whether he is right to scrap it or not.