AAnalyzing a grand slam draw before the tournament starts is a fraught exercise. Very rarely does a draw arise, as setbacks and injuries can disrupt the seemingly logical progression of the 128-player field. And how a player performs heading into the event is often a better indicator of his chances than his ranking or placement would indicate. Moreover, no major is as difficult to predict as the Australian Open, which is already underway in Melbourne; Since it’s the first major tournament after the sport’s “offseason” (if you can call six weeks a legitimate offseason), it’s very difficult to gauge the level of the top players.
That said, things are looking promising for the top American men and women at the Australian Open as Taylor Fritz and Coco Gauff play excellent tennis. The duo teamed up to lead the United States to victory in the United Cup team event in Brisbane last week and look in top form. This is also the first time in almost twenty years (2006) that both an American man (Fritz, No. 4) and a woman (Gauff, No. 3) have been placed in the top four of a major.
But the level of expectation is very different for Gauff and Fritz. The 2023 US Open champion Gauff is one of the main favorites to win the title, behind two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka. While Fritz, even with a career-high placing, is definitely a second choice to prevail as the increasingly impenetrable wall of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz shows no signs of giving way.
Players will almost always say that they never watch draws and only watch one match at a time. And for the most part, that’s true. But you have to believe that Fritz, excited at being seeded so high for the first time in a major, hoped that his potential semifinal opponent would be Alexander Zverev, the second seed.
And no disrespect to Zverev, who is recognized by every follower of the sport as the best current player never to win a slam. But Fritz has a winning record against Zverev, having won seven of their 12 meetings, including their last four. If things go according to the numbers, Fritz would play Sinner in the semi-finals. Fritz, who put up a good fight but lost decisively to the tough Italian in the final of the US Open four months ago, has defeated Sinner only once.
And Fritz would indeed be wise not to look too far ahead, as his path to the semi-finals is full of roadblocks. The 21-year-old Frenchman Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is a possible opponent in the third round. With a height of 1.80 meters, Perricard is one of the few players who towers above the 1.80 meter tall Fritz. Although prone to inconsistency, Perricard possesses one of the most lethal serves in the sport and when he is playing he is the classic example of a lower seed that no player wants to face in the earlier rounds.
Things don’t get any easier if Fritz advances to the fourth round, where a possible matchup against fellow countryman Ben Shelton awaits. Surprisingly, the two only faced each other once, two years ago in Indian Wells, a contention that Fritz won in three hard-fought sets. This would be a fascinating matchup between the present and future of men’s tennis in the US. Shelton had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2024, but with his all-field left-handed play, his potential is huge.
Short manual Murray says coaching Djokovic was ‘demanding’
Show
Andy Murray admits coaching is more demanding than he expected, but he believes he can help Novak Djokovic win more grand slam titles.
Murray will get a taste of life on the other side on Monday when Djokovic takes on young American Nishesh Basavareddy in the first round of the Australian Open.
The 10-time champion from Melbourne is in the unfamiliar position of being seeded seventh after failing to win a Grand Slam title for the first time in seven years in 2024. The only title Djokovic claimed last year was the title he had been chasing his entire career: Olympic gold in Paris.
The hiring of his former great rival Murray was another sign that Djokovic is still looking for an extra edge, with the Scot saying: “In my opinion when watching his matches last year there was sometimes a little bit missing, but that was not the case.” at the Olympic Games, and also at Wimbledon.
“When he was fully motivated and fully focused, he won the Olympics, which is an incredible achievement. I think it was only natural that there was a bit of a disappointment after that, because he had basically set himself one goal and achieved one goal.” goal for the year and he did that.”
Speaking about working with his former rival Djokovic, Murray added: “He’s been incredibly open, and the communication when we’ve been on and off the court has been really good.
“I think it was a bit strange the first few days. But we’ve both tried to encourage that communication, try to build that trust.
“And with frustrations on the field and all that. I completely understand that side of things for him. I’m here to try to help him as best I can.”
“I’ve noticed that coaching is sometimes a bit more demanding than I expected. I think when you’re a player you just see what you do on the pitch and you’re not involved in all the conversations with your team that go into every day, about how you feel, or what you are going to work on, and the strategy and preparations for competitions.
“But as a coach and team member, the days obviously look a little different. And yes, it is quite demanding.” PA media
Fritz’s reward if he advances to the quarter-finals – a likely meeting with three-time Australian Open finalist Daniil Medvedev. A tougher draw for Fritz could not have been imagined. So perhaps it’s best if the 27-year-old doesn’t look too far ahead, as the road ahead looks extremely stressful.
As for Gauff, although there are a slew of former Grand Slam finalists in her side of the draw, and she will meet Sabalenka in the semi-finals, her chances of going all the way are very good.
Since her highly publicized split with coach Brad Gilbert following her disappointing US Open performance (loss to compatriot Emma Navarro, eighth seed in Australia), Gauff’s record is an extraordinary 18-2 since the US Open. With new coach Matt Daly, Gauff has resolved many of the problems with her forehand and serve and is playing a brand of tennis with great confidence. Furthermore, the fact that Gauff is one of the fastest players on tour and has a very strong mentality makes her somewhat upset in the bigger events.
after newsletter promotion
In the first few rounds, Gauff will likely have to navigate past 2020 Australian Open champion and compatriot Sofia Kenin. But Kenin is nowhere near the player she was five years ago. Also lurking in her neighborhood is Karolina Muchova, the all-court wonder envied by tennis purists the world over; Leylah Fernandez, who reached the US Open final in 2021; former French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko, and finally two-time Australian Open champion Naomi Osaka. None of them should pose any major problems for Gauff (and in Osaka’s case, she’s dealing with a recent injury, so it remains to be seen how her play will be affected).
Gauff’s good friend, former doubles partner and 2024 US Open finalist Jessica Pegula, becomes her enemy in the quarterfinals. Pegula has a 4-2 record against Gauff, with Gauff winning their most recent meeting in the WTA finals with ease. While Pegula can hit accurate groundstrokes to all angles when locked in, Gauff’s athleticism should carry her through.
It is the potential semi-final between Gauff and Sabalenka that is the most anticipated in the women’s draw. Gauff leads their rivalry 5-4 and recently knocked out Sabalenka in the penultimate match of the WTA finals. Furthermore, Gauff defeated Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open final. Beating Sabalenka in the final of a major should be a confidence boost for Gauff if the two were to meet. Sabalenka has established herself as the favorite for the tournament, with her back-to-back wins in Melbourne. If she were to win three in a row, it would be the first time since Martina Hingis achieved the feat (1997-1999).
Pre-tournament speculation is just that: a parlor game, an exercise in wise guessing. It’s likely there will be disruptions, but for now it looks set to be a tournament full of blockbuster matches as the tournament reaches its second week. The top of the rankings have tightened their grip on the sport for both men and women, which is a good thing for tennis.