China’s Xi is likely to decline Trump’s inauguration invitation, seeing it as too risky to attend
WASHINGTON — Chinese leader Xi Jinping would likely see an elected president Donald Trump’s invitation Attending his inauguration would be too risky to accept, and Trump’s gesture may have little impact on the increasingly competitive ties between the two nations as the White House changes hands, experts say.
Trump’s incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed Thursday that Trump had extended an invitation to the Jan. 20 ceremony. The Chinese embassy in Washington said it could not provide any information. But experts don’t see Xi coming to Washington next month.
“Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outside in Washington DC at the foot of the stage in January, surrounded by aggressive members of Congress, staring up at Donald Trump as he delivers his inaugural address?” said Danny Russell, who previously served as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.
Russel, now vice president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute, said Xi would not be “reduced to the status of a mere guest celebrating the triumph of a foreign leader — the American president, no less.” ‘
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank, said Beijing will play it safe if there is no protocol or precedent for a Chinese leader to attend the inauguration of a US president.
“I don’t think the Chinese will take the risk,” Sun said. For example, there could be risks in the guest list, Sun said, noting that Taiwan’s top diplomat in the US attended President Joe Biden’s 2021 swearing-in. Beijing considers Taiwan a Chinese territory and has repeatedly warned the US that it is a red line that should not be crossed.
Should Trump strike rates up to 60% on Chinese goods when he takes office because he is threatened, Xi would look foolish if he had chosen to attend, and that is unacceptable for Beijing, Sun said.
On the contrary, Chinese officials are known for their obsession with their leader’s dignity and security when they travel abroad, said Russell, who has negotiated high-level summits with the Chinese. “They have always demanded that any leadership trip to Washington be treated as a full ‘state visit’ with all the bells and whistles,” Russell said.
But it is expected that there are plans to meet in person with Trump and Xi soon, Russell said. Trump prefers face-to-face meetings with foreign leaders, especially key adversaries, and Beijing may think it can get a better deal by dealing directly with Trump, Russell said.
Trump’s return to the White House is expected to further intensify the US-China rivalry. He has picked several China hawks for his cabinet, including Senator Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Representative Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor.
Beijing has taken a wait-and-see approach, but says it is prepared to hit back if Washington raises tariffs on Chinese goods or takes other unfriendly steps.
The Stimson Center’s Sun warns that Trump’s invitation does not rule out hostile policies toward China. Trump visited China in 2017 and “played nice,” but the following year he launched the trade war, she said.
“We’ve seen this before,” Sun said. “For Trump, there is no contradiction between carrot and stick. For China that is a contradiction. It will contribute to China’s desire to play it safe and not be played by Trump, whether it is a friendly or hostile message.”