China’s cash-strapped local governments can’t pay workers on time

Hu Mingdan, an official in eastern China, boasted that she had landed a job known as an “iron rice bowl” — the kind where you don’t have to worry about getting fired or paid.

That was until late last year, when Hu’s salary was delayed by three months for the first time in more than 10 years of working as an accountant for the local government.

“Many of my colleagues’ salaries were delayed, and it was difficult because we have families to feed,” Hu, who lives and works in Nanchang, Jiangxi province, told Al Jazeera. “This was previously unthinkable.”

Hu’s wage arrears are a symptom of a deepening slump in China’s local government finances.

In the world’s second-largest economy, cash-strapped state and local governments are auctioning off public schools, cutting private contractor contracts and cutting pensions.

Despite China’s better-than-expected 4 percent economic growth in the first quarter of 2023, many subnational authorities are deeply in debt, challenging the country’s recovery from COVID-19 and nearly three years of severe pandemic containment.

Last month, Guizhou, one of China’s poorest provinces located in the country’s mountainous southwest, appealed to Beijing for a possible bailout to prevent the country from defaulting.

The Center for Development Research, a research center affiliated with the provincial government, said Guizhou’s debt burden had become a “significant and urgent issue” and “unusually difficult” to pay off.

The Guizhou government did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

The real estate market in China has been in a slump since 2020 [File: Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters]

Guizhou is not alone in the red.

In 2022, each of China’s 31 provinces and municipalities except Shanghai reported budget deficits, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Analysts say excessive spending on “zero Covid”-related policies and the downturn in the real estate market have contributed significantly to local governments’ financial woes.

“The government relied on rapid GDP growth and rising land prices to service its debts,” Cheng Juelu, a Shanghai-based economist and expert on China’s local government debt, told Al Jazeera. “However, the pandemic and the situation in the real estate market have turned those assumptions upside down.”

China’s “zero-Covid” strategy, which prioritized eradicating coronavirus cases at almost any cost, placed a heavy strain on local authorities’ finances.

Many Chinese municipalities are still feeling the cost of lockdowns, mass PCR testing and centralized quarantine, which required significant resources in terms of money and manpower, in addition to causing serious disruption to the economy.

Guangdong, Zhejiang and Beijing, three of China’s biggest economic powerhouses, collectively spent more than 140 billion yuan ($20 billion) on pandemic control last year.

On top of these expenses, revenues were stripped from the state treasury of businesses disrupted by lockdowns and other pandemic restrictions.

The Chinese holiday island of Hainan saw government revenue fall sharply during the pandemic [File: John Ruwitch/Reuters]

In Hainan, a popular resort island off China’s southern coast, pandemic curbs directly caused a 9.6 percent reduction in government revenue in 2022, according to the province’s 2023 budget report.

China’s imploding real estate market, a key driver of economic growth, has exacerbated the fiscal situation.

Despite Beijing easing measures to curb developer reliance on debt, which plunged the market into a slump, confidence among developers and consumers remains low.

Revenue from land sales, long a major source of local government revenue, has fallen sharply over the past year, leaving unfinished skyscrapers across the country.

Overall, 22 of China’s 31 provinces saw revenue declines in 2022, according to 2023 budget plans.

Under financial pressure, many local governments have cut spending, in some cases cutting pensions, deferring salaries and cutting contract jobs.

In February, retirees in Wuhan and Dalian took to the streets to protest cuts to the monthly stipend offered as part of China’s health insurance system.

Guizhou is one of the poorest provinces in China [File: Thomas Peter/Reuters]

Beijing has noticed this and announced measures to support local governments and businesses. In March, former Premier Li Keqiang announced that China would raise its budget deficit target to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), up from 3.2 percent in 2022, to provide additional fiscal stimulus to the economy.

Despite these efforts, some analysts remain skeptical about local governments’ ability to manage their debt problems and support the economy’s post-Covid recovery.

“The ability of the Chinese government to bring the situation under control remains questionable,” Cheng said. “The debt problem has been growing for years, and while the government’s measures may provide some temporary relief, they do not address the root causes of the problem.”

For Hu and many other Chinese citizens, delayed salary payments and economic uncertainty are a sobering reminder of the challenges China faces in its post-pandemic recovery.

“I never thought I would experience something like this,” Hu said. “It’s a tough time for everyone.”

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