Storm ‘Nadine’ is gaining strength in the Atlantic Ocean – and its chances of becoming a hurricane have tripled.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) released its updated forecast on Tuesday, showing there is a 30 percent chance of becoming a hurricane by Thursday.
The previous report showed that there was only a 10 percent chance that the storm would reach hurricane proportions within 48 hours.
The upgrade comes amid increasing wind speeds.
Meteorologists are keeping a close eye on potential Nadine, which could overrun Florida or take a different path toward Mexico and Central America.
A tropical depression is making its way toward Florida and could be upgraded to a hurricane in the coming days
“This system is forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions could become more conducive to gradual development by mid-to-late this week,” the NHC says. shared in the 8am ET update.
The storm, formally known as Invest 94L, was previously categorized as “a disturbance” but was upgraded to a tropical depression on Monday after surface winds reached 60 kilometers per hour and spawned cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean.
As warmer water approaches, a depression brings devastating rain and thunderstorms that cause severe flooding and can develop into a hurricane if winds reach 75 miles per hour.
It is unclear if the tropical storm will definitively develop into a hurricane or when, but the NCH says the storm has a 60 percent chance of becoming a hurricane within seven days.
The tropical depression is currently located several hundred miles west of the Cape Verde Islands, but could gradually develop into a hurricane as it reaches warmer waters near Florida.
The route is expected to head northwest, past the northern tip of Antigua and towards the Dominican Republic and the southeastern coast of Cuba.
“There is still a scenario where that feature could find a path further north and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, but the likelihood of that appears to be decreasing,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex DaSilva. reported.
However, there is now a second concern as an area of low pressure develops over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
There are “two key areas most likely to drive tropical development over the next few days to a week or so, and one or both features could still find a way to impact Florida,” AccuWeather meteorologists told us. USA today.
The second storm, which will be named Oscar, has shown some signs of life intermittently in recent days but could enter a much more favorable area for tropical development this week as it heads into the Leeward Islands in the northeastern Caribbean approaches’. DaSilva said in the AccuWeather report.
If the tropical depression makes landfall in the Atlantic Ocean, it would occur within the next nine days
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DaSilva told DailyMail.com that the storm is unlikely to reach hurricane status.
If the storm passes over the Virgin Islands, the mountains could disrupt its growth.
He added that “the likelihood of a direct impact on the US is low because there is wind shear that could protect us.”
A wind shear consists of strong upper-level winds that can remove the heat and moisture from the eye of a hurricane and distort its shape, effectively tearing the eye apart.
If the storm were to develop into something larger, DaSilva said it likely won’t happen until Oct. 17-18 and meteorologists won’t know what path the storm will take until then.
“I don’t think it would affect us at all,” he said, adding that “it will either just be pushed out to sea or there will be nothing left by the time it reaches the US.”
However, the storm is still far away and if it hits the United States it won’t be for another nine days, “so things could still change,” DaSilva said.
The strength of the storm depends on how long it remains above water, which allows it to grow and develop into a hurricane.
“One possibility would take the system westward into Central America and southern Mexico, and the other is unfortunately toward Florida,” DaSilva said in an AccuWeather message. report.
If the tropical depression moves toward Central America, it won’t have as much time to strengthen, but if it shifts north toward the Gulf of Mexico, it could provide the climate it needs to grow.
“Not only are the waters in this area very warm – well into the 80s Fahrenheit deep – the ocean heat content in the western Caribbean is at record highs at any time of year,” DaSilva said in the report .
The tropical storm could move towards Florida or Mexico and Central America in the coming week
The approaching storm comes as Florida works to recover from Hurricane Milton, which hit Tampa and tore through the state last week, spawning deadly tornadoes.
At least 17 people have been killed in Florida, and while the state is still assessing the financial toll, damage is estimated at billions.
Milton also came after Hurricane Helene hit the Southeast two weeks earlier, flooding states along the coast.
Helene has cost between $30.5 billion and $47.5 billion in total damage across 16 states, according to CoreLogic, and has claimed the lives of more than 230 people to date, with countless others still listed as missing.
This year, there were already above-average hurricanes in mid-October, with four major hurricanes, including Beryl, Helene, Kirk and Milton, hitting the US.
In May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the US would have an above-average hurricane season and predicted that between four and seven hurricanes of Category 3 or higher would strike.
The prediction so far has come true: by mid-October the figures are above the historical average.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
DailyMail.com has contacted the National Hurricane Center for comment.