Champions League State-Of-Play: What Liverpool and Aston Villa need to seal an automatic spot in the last-16… Are Man City, PSG and Real Madrid at risk?

We are almost approaching the business end of the 2024/25 Champions League and many questions remain to be answered.

While Liverpool, Inter Milan and Barcelona are well on their way to securing a spot in the top eight, some European giants are at risk of not even making the play-offs.

With just three games remaining in the renewed phase of the Champions League, defending champions Real Madrid find themselves just two points above the elimination zone in 24th place after their 2-0 defeat to Liverpool at Anfield.

Los Blancos are now just one spot above French champions PSG, who are currently in the relegation zone, with both sides needing results to get their way in the remaining league games to avoid elimination.

After Manchester City’s recent poor run of form, recently blowing a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 against Feyenoord on Matchday 5, Pep Guardiola’s men have had their hopes of automatic qualification seriously damaged.

Here is the current state of play in the Champions League after matchday five.

They defeated defending champions Real Madrid 2-0, who are now at risk of elimination from the competition

There are only three matchdays left for teams to secure their place in the knockout round

Arne Slot’s Liverpool are at the top of the table, with a perfect record of five wins out of five.

The Reds, with fifteen points, are the only team to have taken all available points and are currently guaranteed a place in the play-offs, although according to Opta’s pre-tournament simulations they more than likely have enough points to reach last place. 16.

Italian champion Inter Milan occupies second place with 13 points, just two behind Slot’s team.

Simone Inzaghi’s men alongside fifth-placed Atalanta are the only other two sides besides Liverpool to be unbeaten in the competition so far.

After an opening round defeat to Monaco, Hansi Flick’s Barcelona have looked excellent and have piled on the goals, finding the back of the net 17 times in their last four games to move to the top with 12 points. rose to third place.

Borussia Dortmund occupies fourth place with 12 points, followed by Atalanta with 11 points.

Liverpool is not the only English team that is currently automatically in the last sixteen. Mikel Arteta’s Gunners are seventh with 10 points after their 5-1 win against Sporting on Tuesday,

They are even on points with seven other clubs, with Bayer Leverkusen above them in sixth place by goal difference. Monaco completes the top eight as it stands now.

Arne Slot’s Liverpool are at the top of the table, with a perfect record of five wins out of five

Hansi Flick’s Barcelona have looked in top form and scored the goals, finding the back of the net 17 times in their last four games.

As it stands, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal are in the top eight, promising automatic qualification for the last 16

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa sit in ninth place with 10 points, separated from their London rivals only on goal difference.

The Lions started their first season in the Champions League strongly. They won their first three games, but dropped back in the standings after a defeat to Club Brugge and only drew against Juventus.

To the surprise of many people, there are still plenty of European giants outside the top eight.

Premier League champions Manchester City are the standout, with Pep Gaurdiola’s men in 17th place, having collected just eight points from their opening five games.

Harry Kane’s Bayern Munich are yet another shocking omission from the top eight, finishing thirteenth on nine points.

They are level on points with some other European heavyweights who many thought would be higher in the rankings at this stage of the competition phase.

Benfica in 14th, Atletico Madrid in 13th and AC Milan in 16th have all managed just eight points from their five games.

Closely behind Man City are Italian giants Juventus in 19th and Scottish champions Celtic in 20th, sandwiched between Manchester and Juventus in 18th is PSV.

Harry Kane’s Bayern Munich are one of the shock omissions from the top eight, sitting in 13th place with nine points

Premier League champions Manchester City are far behind in seventeenth place, having collected just eight points from their first five games

Feyenoord (21st), Club Brugge (22) and GNK Dinamo (23) are all in the knockout stages of the play-offs with seven points each, while Real Madrid occupy the last spot with six points.

French champions PSG are the biggest name not currently occupying a play-off spot. They are two points behind Real Madrid in 25th place, having recorded just one win in five games.

Who qualifies for the knockout stages?

Of the 36 teams involved in the Champions League competition phase, those finishing in the top eight of the rankings will automatically progress to the last 16 of the tournament.

Teams placed between ninth and sixteenth will be seeded and drawn against one of the clubs placed seventeenth to 24th, where they will play a two-legged knockout play-off.

The winners of the eight play-off matches will then progress to the round of 16, where they will face off against those who finished in the top eight.

Those who finish in 25th place or lower will be eliminated from the tournament and unlike last year, they will not play in the Europa League, but will be eliminated from Europe all together.

Teams finishing in the top eight of the table will automatically progress to the last 16 of the tournament

Teams placed between ninth and 16th will be seeded and drawn against one of the clubs placed 17th to 24th, where they will play a two-legged knockout play-off.

How many points do teams need to qualify?

As this is an unprecedented first in European club football, the points criteria for the knockout stages are not clear.

But before this season, Opta calculated each team’s expected number of points and the likelihood of them progressing past the league stage.

The permutations estimate that 16 points would give teams a 98% chance of finishing in the top eight and going straight to the last 16 as a seeded team.

It also predicted that if a team finished the league stage with ten points, it would give them a 99% chance of qualifying in the top 24 and securing at least a spot in the play-offs.

Teams that had nine points or lower according to their calculations did not progress beyond the competition phase.

Current rankings in the competition phase

Remaining matches in the competition phase

Game Day Four

Tuesday December 10

• Girona vs Liverpool (6:45pm)
• GNK Dinamo vs Celtic (18:45)
• Atalanta vs Real Madrid
• Bayer Leverkusen vs Inter
• Club Brugge vs Sporting CP
• Salzburg vs Paris Saint Germain
• Shakhtar Donetsk vs Bayern Munich
• Leipzig vs Aston Villa
• Brest against PSV Eindhoven

Wednesday December 11th

• Atletico de Madrid vs Slovan Bratislava (18:45)
• LOSC Lille vs. Sturm Graz (18:45)
• AC Milan vs Crvena Zvezda
• Arsenal vs Monaco
• Borussia Dortmund-Barcelona
• Feyenoord vs Sparta Praha
• Juventus vs Manchester City
• Benfica vs Bologna
• Stuttgart versus young boys

Match day five

Tuesday January 21

• Monaco vs Aston Villa
• Atalanta vs Sturm Graz
• Atletico de Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen
• Bologna vs Borussia Dortmund
• Club Brugge-Juventus
• Crvena Zvezda against PSV Eindhoven
• Liverpool vs LOSC Lille
• Slovan Bratislava vs Stuttgart
• Benfica vs Barcelona

Match day six

Wednesday January 22

• Shakhtar Donetsk vs Brest
• Leipzig vs Sporting CP
• AC Milan vs Girona
• Sparta Prague vs Inter
• Arsenal vs GNK Dinamo
• Celtic versus young boys
• Feyenoord vs Bayern Munich
• Real Madrid vs Salzburg

Wednesday January 29

• Aston Villa vs Celtic
• Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Praha
• Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk
• Young Boys vs. Crvena Zvezda
• Barcelona vs Atalanta
• Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava
• Inter vs Monaco
• Salzburg vs Atletico de Madrid
• Girona vs Arsenal
• GNK Dinamo vs AC Milan
• Juventus vs Benfica
• LOSC Lille vs Feyenoord
• Manchester City vs Club Brugge
• PSV Eindhoven-Liverpool
• Sturm Graz vs Leipzig
• Sporting CP vs Bologna
• Brest vs Real Madrid
• Stuttgart vs Paris Saint Germain
• Paris Saint Germain vs Manchester City