Cause of America’s brutal tornado season revealed amid devastating damage in Tennessee, North Carolina and Michigan

The US is experiencing a worse tornado season than normal this year, with 670 so far.

That’s about 100 more than average, leading many commentators to blame climate change.

But a top meteorologist told DailyMail.com that the increase is due to a simple, natural phenomenon.

About every seven years, a pattern known as El Nino forms, caused by a shift in the distribution of warm water in the Pacific Ocean around the equator, causing an atmospheric wave to sweep across the US.

That weather pattern combines with the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, changing wind speeds and directions that form tornadoes.

So far, experts have predicted there will be a total of between 1,250 and 1,375 tornadoes this year. Pictured: Tornado rips through Mendon, Michigan

The historical average for January through May 8 is about 599 tornadoes, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

The only years with more tornadoes through May 8 were 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2017.

Senior meteorologist Paul Pastelok with weather forecasters AccuWeather told DailyMail.com that the The US is forecast to experience between 1,250 and 1,375 total tornadoes this year – but estimates could rise if the US has an above-average hurricane season.

The hurricane season runs from June to November and is all about tornadoes.

The storms bring multiple supercell thunderstorms, with both warm and cold air, and cause wind shear, an abrupt change in wind speed and direction that can cause swirling vortices of air: tornadoes.

Meteorologists reported that 2024 would be a big year for tornadoes in early January, predicting that the US would see a “significant increase in tornadoes” in April and May.

That’s because El Nino tends to introduce more moisture and instability into the atmosphere, creating conditions favorable for tornadoes.

More than 600 tornadoes have already hit the US this year, reaching Texas, Iowa, Michigan and Louisiana. Pictured: A mobile home destroyed by a tornado in Kalamazoo, Michigan

Tornado Alley stretches from Texas to South Dakota and extends into Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and some parts of Louisiana, Iowa, Nebraska and eastern Colorado. Pictured: House destroyed by tornado that struck Barnsdall, Oklahoma

The combination of upper-level wind patterns coming from the West Coast to the Rockies and warming waters in the Gulf and Caribbean “has contributed to unstable conditions in Tornado Alley.” Pictured: Tornado damage in Barnsdall, Oklahoma

Warm water from the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean has also added to the moisture content of the air, which has collided with cooler, drier air, creating thunderstorms and supercells — types of storms that often produce tornadoes.

There have been 129 preliminary reports of tornadoes in May so far, following 378 in April.

Tornado Alley stretches from Texas to South Dakota and extends into Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and some parts of Louisiana, Iowa, Nebraska and eastern Colorado.

“Tornado Allee has been on the radar since the spring forecast was issued,” Pastelok said.

So far this year, Texas has been hit by 68 tornadoes, while Iowa is closing in on 63 cyclones hitting the state.

“I don’t know if climate change has had a direct impact on the number of tornadoes,” Pastelok said, adding that “the Gulf has been consistently warm in recent years,” so the increase is more likely due to the setup of the weather pattern.

“El Nino is not very supportive of tornadoes in the center of the country, and this year the tornadoes weakened very quickly,” he continued.

The number of tornadoes in the US has remained largely consistent over the decades, but happens in collective bursts over a few days.

“When tornadoes happen now, they often happen in an outbreak environment,” Tyler Fricker, an assistant professor of geography at the University of Louisiana told Monroe. New York Times.

But even as the number of tornadoes has increased, it still has not reached the same number as 2004, the most reported year in history.

Twenty years ago, 1,817 tornadoes touched down in the US, of which May was a major contributor with more than 500.

But what pushed the numbers above average were the three major hurricanes that hit in September, spawning more than 200 tornadoes.

Pastelok said he won’t have a better idea of ​​the final number until August, when peak tornado season arrives and it depends on whether a similar major hurricane event will result in a significant number of tornadoes.

‘Could it happen again? That could be possible,” he said, but he made it clear that he and his team are not predicting the same numbers as for 2004. “It’s hard to make those kinds of predictions.”