Canada is preparing for a second Trump presidency. Trudeau says Trump ‘represents uncertainty’

TORONTO — The Canadian government is preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump could reach the White House again and the “uncertainty” that would bring, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said during a Cabinet retreat on Tuesday.

Trudeau said Trump “represents uncertainty. We don’t know exactly what he’s going to do,” but he said his administration could manage Trump sooner by showing that Canada and the U.S. can create economic growth on both sides of the border.

Trump is looking for a victory in the Republican primaries in New Hampshire and his second victory in a row in his quest for the 2024 Republican nomination, after an impressive victory in Iowa.

Trudeau’s cabinet discussed the Nov. 7 presidential election at a retreat in Montreal and the prospect that Trump could return to the White House.

“We weathered the challenges of the Trump administration seven years ago for four years, making the case that Canada and the U.S. do best when we do it together,” Trudeau said.

Kirsten Hillman, the Canadian ambassador to the US, and a panel of experts were present to inform the cabinet and prepare a strategy. Trudeau said his industry and trade ministers will work with the business community to lead the “Team Canada approach.”

Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers Association of Canada, joined the discussion on Tuesday.

Trump called Trudeau “weak” and “dishonest” and attacked Canada’s vital trade when he was president. He threatened import tariffs on cars and imposed them on steel. The unprecedented tone of the attacks on one of Washington’s closest allies left a bitter taste, and most Canadians were relieved that Trump was defeated in 2020.

“Whether it was his attacks on farmers across Canada, whether it was his attacks on steel and aluminum workers, or his determination to tear up the Free Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada, we were able to stay strong and renegotiate the NAFTA. Trudeau said. “That was difficult.”

Canada is one of the most trade-dependent countries in the world, and Trump’s move to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement and call for a 25% tariff on the auto sector posed an existential threat. More than 75% of Canadian exports go to the US, so maintaining a free trade agreement was crucial, and the two countries, along with Mexico, eventually reached a new agreement.

“What works for all American presidents is to demonstrate that what is good for Canada is also good for the United States and vice versa,” Trudeau said. “The integration of our economies and the partnerships we have in so many different areas are ultimately beneficial on both sides of the border.”

Trade between the US and Canada was estimated at 1.2 trillion Canadian dollars ($890 billion) in 2022. Every day, about 400,000 people cross the world’s longest international border and about 800,000 Canadians live in the US. There is close cooperation in defense, border security and law enforcement, and enormous overlap in culture, traditions and pastimes.

“Unpredictable is not a word we want to use in relation to trade policy, which should be about promoting stability and predictability,” said Daniel Béland, a professor of political science at McGill University in Montreal.

Nelson Wiseman, a political science professor at the University of Toronto, said Trudeau’s Liberal government is deeply concerned about the prospect of another Trump presidency.

“While Trump is unlikely to tear up the slightly revised NAFTA agreement negotiated by his administration, a more protectionist U.S. administration would be a major threat to the Canadian economy because two-thirds of Canada’s trade is with the U.S.,” he said. Wiseman.

“The impact would be greater for Canada than for any other country, with the possible exception of Mexico,” Wiseman said. The need for resolution under the NAFTA dispute settlement provisions is long overdue. I wouldn’t expect any exclusions for Canada.”