Can Ukraine take back Russian-occupied Crimea?

By James On Oct 25, 2023

As their closely watched summer counter-offensive continues into the fall, Ukrainian forces fighting for a breakthrough have stepped up attacks on the Russian stronghold of Crimea. The allies hope that the recent arrival of US long-range missiles could boost their efforts.

Crimea, invaded and illegally occupied in 2014, is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s prized strategic asset and the Achilles heel of his war effort, military analysts say.

Why we wrote this

Ukraine has repeatedly attacked targets in the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula – which is of crucial strategic importance to Moscow. These attacks aren’t just pinpricks, experts say.

Its geography as a peninsula makes it vulnerable to isolation. But its warm water port and access to the Black Sea make it vital to the Russian armed forces. In other words, it is an attractive target for Ukrainian war planners – especially since it is home to a major Russian air base and the Black Sea Fleet, which docks at the deepwater port of Sevastopol. Cutting Russia’s land bridge to Crimea has been a key goal of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.

The peninsula is also directly connected to Russia via the 20 kilometer long bridge over the Kerch Strait. It was constructed on Putin’s orders in 2016 and is an essential supply line. Ukrainian special forces have repeatedly bombarded it with everything from explosives to jury-rigged drones. Ukraine’s Defense Minister recently promised that his country will continue to do so until the bridge is destroyed.

How serious are these attacks and can Ukraine take back Crimea? The Monitor’s global security correspondent explains.

Crimea, invaded and illegally occupied in 2014, is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s prized strategic asset and the Achilles heel of his war effort, military analysts say.

Why we wrote this

Ukraine has repeatedly attacked targets in the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula – which is of crucial strategic importance to Moscow. These attacks aren’t just pinpricks, experts say.

How did Ukraine attack Russian forces in Crimea?

In one of the most high-profile missile attacks of the war, Ukrainian officials claimed in September to have killed dozens of officers as well as Admiral Viktor Sokolov, head of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Moscow denied these claims and released unverified videos of the admiral in meetings as proof of life.

What is clear from satellite images is that the attack caused the fleet headquarters in Sevastopol to collapse and smoke. This occurred significantly despite robust Russian air defenses and electronic warfare capabilities, according to a report this month from the Institute for the Study of War think tank in Washington.

Ukrainian long-range missiles also took out an amphibious assault landing ship and an attack submarine in Sevastopol last month. These were “incredible” hits, says retired Lt. Gen. Frederick “Ben” Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe – especially since Russian ships are one of the main platforms Moscow uses to launch its own missiles into Ukraine .

Kiev has also continued to attack the Kerch Bridge. A strike in July left a span dangling precariously, and a massive explosion last October halted heavy traffic for months.

Are these attacks pinpricks or severe blows?

Although Russia consistently claims to have repelled most of the Ukrainian army’s attacks – and it has done so – it is clear that Crimea’s defense is siphoning off its resources.

To protect the Kerch Bridge from Kiev’s persistent naval drones, Russian forces built an extensive underwater barrier of submerged ships. They also stationed missile defense batteries, attack helicopters and even truck-mounted smoke generators there.

Recent missile attacks have also forced Moscow to move some ships from Sevastopol. This has reduced the effectiveness of the Black Sea Fleet, including its ability to enforce blockades on Ukrainian exports, according to a recent British defense intelligence report.

Analysts say that, at the very least, Crimea is no longer the safe haven it once was. This is in large part because Western long-range missiles, which can travel up to 150 miles, are increasingly allowing Ukraine to strike “high-value targets” in attacks that are far from pinpricks, Mr. Hodges says.

As a result, Russian ships and anti-aircraft systems that were once safely out of range are now in the crosshairs of the Ukrainian armed forces, although Russia’s extensive air defenses are still capable of thwarting most missile attacks.

At the same time, Ukraine has long lobbied for the US military’s Tactical Missile System, known as ATACMS (pronounced ‘attack-’ems’). The Biden administration, despite growing opposition in Congress to aid to Ukraine, quietly greenlighted a small number of these long-range missiles in September. This month they appeared on the battlefield. But U.S. defense officials also warn that U.S. stockpiles of the weapon are low.

Still, Ukraine had hoped that this American promise would inspire Berlin to share its own Taurus long-range missiles. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz put an end to this in early October, but reportedly expressed concern that Kiev could use them to blow up the Kerch Bridge.

Can Ukraine take back Crimea?

To have a chance at this, analysts tend to agree that Ukrainian forces would have to fight their way into the Sea of Azov to cut off the land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia now occupies.

This is quite a task, to say the least: the Russians have dug in there and reinforced their front lines with minefields and other heavy barriers. Military strategists know that it is much more difficult for attackers to dislodge such positions than for defenders to hold them.

Tanks obviously help with fouls, which is why Kiev lobbied so hard to get them last year. What delayed their arrival was in large part concerns about Mr. Putin’s red lines: Crimea is sacred to him, and threatening it could prompt him to use his nuclear arsenal, the thinking goes.

Western officials don’t want to be “irresponsible,” but in believing this theory also plays to Putin’s hype to some extent, said Iulia-Sabina Joja, director of the Black Sea program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. He has “said that he really cares about Crimea – but that also applies to many things that are not his,” says Dr Joja.

Although ATACMS are manufactured for a maximum range of about 200 miles, the ATACMS recently delivered to Ukraine from the United States have a shorter range of about 100 miles, to protect against the possibility that they could be used to to attack across borders. to cross the actual Russian border and further escalate the war.

That said, Mr. Putin will not lose Russia’s leadership if he is forced to surrender Crimea, Mr. Hodges argues. He adds that the exodus of Russian men fleeing conscription shows a deep disinterest in the struggle for territory among Putin’s political base, even as Russian tourists continue to flock there for vacations.

At the same time, the fighting spirit has achieved the virtually impossible on the battlefield, analysts note, and for this reason it is important to examine what Crimea also means for Ukraine.