Lawmakers in the House of Representatives this week weighed the prospects for a conflict between the US, Japan and China over Taiwan in 2026 in a war simulation that warned of devastating costs for all involved.
Exercises by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed how the US and its allies could derail an amphibious Chinese attack – but not without suffering heavy casualties themselves.
The fighting would claim around 10,000 casualties on all sides, CSIS predicted. The US would lose ten to twenty warships, two aircraft carriers, two hundred to four hundred fighter planes, and about three thousand men in the first three weeks of the battle.
But China comes off even worse: it fails to reclaim Taiwan and loses most of its amphibious fleet, 52 major warships and 160 fighter planes – a military humiliation that would endanger the country’s communist leaders.
The grim war simulations come at a time of political turmoil, with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te taking a tougher stance against China, which views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be united with the mainland, by force if necessary.
China has increased its military activities around Taiwan in the past five years, and President Xi Jinping has reportedly asked his generals to prepare to retake the island of 24 million as early as 2027.
US President Joe Biden has promised to defend the territory. But the US has no treaty obligation to do so, and newly elected President Donald Trump has indicated he is less willing to finance a war in Asia as part of his “America First” policy.
Against this tense backdrop, CSIS this week presented 25 possible simulations of the conflict to members of the House China Select Committee, which is led by Michigan Republican John Moolenaar.
Ready for action: A Taiwanese conscript launches missiles during an exercise at a military base in Tainan, Taiwan
The big unknown: would Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) launch an attack on Taiwan, and would newly-elected President Donald Trump defend the island? Pictured: A meeting of the two leaders in 2017
“We went through a simulation of what could happen in a worst-case scenario conflict with China and learned how we can work together in a bipartisan manner to ensure America is prepared,” Moolenaar told Fox News.
“Wherever and whenever, the United States and our allies must have the military means to defeat our adversaries,” he said, adding that America may have to once again become “the world’s arsenal of democracy” if it is called upon is done.
China’s defense industry operates on a “wartime” basis and has a shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than America’s, eroding the military advantage the US has enjoyed for decades over the rising Asian power, the CSIS warns.
Analysts urged lawmakers to be prepared to act quickly against a Chinese attack on Taiwan. They said the “Ukrainian” strategy of gradually increasing support to that country to fend off Russian invaders would not work in the South China Sea.
Taiwan should defend itself against attack, and the US should immediately join the fight, operating through its bases in Japan, said Matthew Cancian, a professor at the Naval War College and lead author of the project.
‘If the US didn’t join the fight for two weeks [after an invasion]then it would be too late,” said Cancian, a Marine veteran.
“China would already have too strong a base.”
Washington should also send more anti-ship missiles to Taiwan to defend against an attack, the report said.
CSIS said Japan’s role in such a conflict is critical and called for rapid strengthening of US-Japan ties South Korea would probably not get involved in a war over Taiwan.
Cancian said it would be “very helpful if South Korea stood shoulder to shoulder with us.”
Analysts also warned that North Korea could use a crisis in Taiwan as an opportunity to invade the South, perhaps using troops currently gaining combat experience in support of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te (center) takes a stricter stance on China’s independence than his predecessors
An M60A3 tank fires live rounds in Penghu, Taiwan, in a simulation of a response to an attack by Chinese Coast Guard ships and militia boats
War exercises from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed how the US and its allies could derail an amphibious Chinese attack
Cancian warned that U.S. forces cannot defend Taiwan from afar and would have to be deployed to the island to stop any Chinese attack.
That’s because China’s anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles would threaten U.S. arms shipments to the island.
“American forces should be directly involved,” Cancian said.
“There is no way to deny a takeover of Taiwan and keep American forces safe at the same time.”
Researchers warned that China is outpacing the US in planes, ships and missiles.
Beijing’s land-attack and anti-ship missiles would be particularly devastating to U.S. and allied forces there.
The Pentagon must increase production of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, coastal defense cruise missiles and other munitions to defend Taiwan, it has been claimed.
Washington’s current stockpile of some 440 anti-ship missiles would be depleted in less than seven days in a war with China, researchers have warned.
They urged Taiwan’s admirals to stop ordering large ships that China can easily attack and destroy and focus on smaller ships and stealthy submarines.
The US has long pursued a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over whether it would intervene to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.
The policy ensures that Taipei is unwilling to provoke a war by formally declaring independence from China, while at the same time deterring Beijing from invading the island for fear of going to war with a superpower.
In the war game scenario, Trump, who will be president in 2026, comes to defend Taiwan.
The US is Taiwan’s main international backer and arms supplier, despite its lack of formal diplomatic recognition.
It’s not clear what Trump would do in such a scenario; he has suggested in the past that Taiwan should pay Washington for providing defensive assistance.
The war game took place against the backdrop of rising tensions between Taiwan, China and the US.
Taiwanese soldiers stand guard during the nighttime military exercises ‘Chen-Chiang’ in Penghu, Taiwan
Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te visits a military camp in Taoyuan, Taiwan in May 2024, shortly after taking office
A member of the honor guard is seen during a ceremony commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Guningtou in Kinmen, Taiwan
Taiwan President Lai will visit Taipei’s three remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific on a trip starting at the end of this month, his office said Friday.
But the administration declined to provide details of any transit stops by the president on U.S. soil.
Taiwanese presidents usually use visits to allies to make official stops in the US, where they often meet friendly politicians and make speeches, angering Beijing.
China has held military exercises around Taiwan twice in the past two years, following presidential or vice-presidential stops in the US.
Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and says it has the right to engage in talks with foreign countries and its leaders to travel abroad.
In August last year, China held a day of military exercises around Taiwan after then-Vice President Lai returned from the US, where he officially only made stops but gave speeches on the way to and from Paraguay.
In April last year, China also staged war games around Taiwan, angered by a visit to the US by then-President Tsai Ing-wen, who met then-Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles.