California’s EV target could cost taxpayers $20 BILLION in electric grid updates to meet demand by 2045, study shows

California’s ambitious EV goal could require significant upgrades to the electric grid to meet demand by 2045 — and scientists estimate the shift will cost up to $20 billion.

The west coast state will enforce a ban on the sale of new gas-powered cars by 2035, but researchers from the University of California (UC), Davis, will add 50 percent more transmission lines for power plants.

However, to reach the carbon neural timeline a decade later, California will need 67 percent more lines, as the number of electric vehicles on the road is expected to increase by 96 percent.

The upgrades are due to requirements an additional 25 gigawatts of power, equivalent to more than 62 million solar panels.

The team noted that infrastructure costs will be offset by an electricity rate reduction of between $0.01 and $0.06/kWh by 2045. PNAS.

“Although the price of electricity may fall, the total bill of all consumers will still increase due to the growth in total electricity consumption, which will offset the total upgrade costs.”

Researchers found that there are more than 1,600 substations and more than 5,000 feeders spread across three regions: Los Angeles, San Diego and Northern California.

With current transmission lines, or feeders, seven percent will be overloaded in 2025, 27 percent five years later and half that by 2035.

However, the team found that two-thirds of feeders will be overloaded by 2045 as demand for electrical energy reaches double current capacity.

With current transmission lines, seven percent will be overloaded in 2025, 27 percent five years later and half that by 2035. But two-thirds of feeders will be overloaded by 2045.

While aging infrastructure will remain throughout California, the study found that the Bay Area will bear the brunt.

“The total upgrade need will grow dramatically from 3.5 GW in 2030 to 25.4 GW in 2045,” the study reads.

“The range of costs for circuit upgrades is quite wide, with total costs in 2045 ranging from $6 billion to $20 billion.”

Researchers also noted that EV-related upgrade costs are expected to be up to 40 percent higher than current network costs over the next twenty years.

California became the first in the world to ban the sale of new gas-powered cars when it passed the policy in April 2022.

The move means automakers will have to reduce the number of gas guzzlers they sell to reach the plan’s first quota, which calls for 35 percent of new cars, SUVs and small pickups sold by 2026 to be zero-emission vehicles.

The quota will increase every two years, by 51 percent in 2028, 68 percent in 2030, and five years later, 100 percent of all new vehicles sold should be battery-powered – 20 percent of which could be hybrid plug-ins.

The ban is part of California’s larger plan to completely transition away from fossil fuels and use 100 percent renewable energy by 2045.

But it doesn’t stop residents from driving their current petrol cars or buying and selling them second-hand.