Republican voters who left Democratic stronghold California for neighboring Nevada could help win the swing state for Donald Trump, supporters and a senator say.
About 150,000 Californians have crossed the border since 2020 and now make up 20 percent of the state’s population.
It’s not clear how many of these are Republicans, but the gap between registered Democrats and Republican members has narrowed, from 111,000 in 2020 to 71,000 in 2023.
There is a growing group of California expats in Nevada who dislike the politics of their home state, and many are actively opposing Kamala Harris and the measures she introduced as attorney general, Republicans said.
Nevada State Senator Jeff Stone, a former California state lawmaker who now runs the Help Me Flee CA website, said Politics that he thinks California expats “can certainly be an important help” to Trump.
Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump arrives at a campaign event in Henderson, Nevada on October 31
U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally in Las Vegas, Nevada, on October 31
While many Nevadans begrudge what they see as liberal Californians moving into their state and shifting politics to the left, the rising number of Republican voters may in many cases suggest a different reality.
Republican consultant Chuck Muth said, “There are Californians who have fled California and moved to Nevada because they wanted to get away from the [Harris’] types of policy.’
Former California resident Jim DeMartini explained why he changed course and moved to Reno: “California should just be a communist state.”
The retiree, who previously ran a ranch outside Modesto, California, for 46 years, said he paid $200,000 a year in state income taxes and moved across the state line in 2020.
‘[It was] Kamala Harris, it was Governor Newsom, it was a left-wing, anti-business legislature that felt they had to control everything. They even went so far as to ban straws,” he told Politico.
The Silver State has long been a swing state and the race there seems as close as it can get. Like the other six battlegrounds, it looks set to be a nail-biter.
FiveThirtyEight.com on Thursday said Harris has a 51 percent chance of winning the state, while Trump has a 49 percent chance.
This is evident from a CNN/SSRS poll released on Tuesday showed Trump with 48 percent of support from likely voters in Nevada and Harris with 47 percent.
A sign supporting Trump and Vance seen in rural Dyer, Esmeralda County, Nevada’s least populous county, on October 17, 2024
An image of U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is seen at The Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada, on October 31, 2024
Analysis shows more Republicans than Democrats have already filed ballots in the state.
The last time Nevada voted for a Republican in the presidential race was George W. Bush in 2004.
However, President Joe Biden only won the state in 2020 by 33,596 votes.
Such a narrow margin means that the growing number of registered Republicans could give Democrats cause for concern.
More people turned out in the last election than in 2016, when Clinton won the state by a similar margin to Trump (27,000 votes).
Nevada has six electoral votes up for grabs and has elected both Democrats and Republicans statewide in recent years, making it one of the most likely swing states to potentially go red in 2024.
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According to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls, Trump is up almost a point to 0.9 percent as of October 31; Harris was up 1 point earlier this month.
Only one Emerson College In the Nov. 1 poll, Harris had a one-point lead, 48-47. The poll’s margin of error is 3.6 percent.
It was estimated that approximately $24 million would be spent on the 2024 presidential race in Nevada in the final month of the race.
The state’s economy, which relies heavily on the service sector, was devastated by the coronavirus pandemic.
In 2022, voters ousted their Democratic governor and elected Republican Joe Lombardo by just 13,000 votes, while Democrats managed to keep the Senate seat. Republicans were helped in the state by independent voters.