Improvements in cancer survival are the slowest in half a century, with deaths expected to rise by 50 percent over the next 25 years.
World health leaders are warning of a cancer time bomb, while a report from Cancer Research UK shows progress in the fight against the disease has stalled at levels last seen in the 1970s.
A growing, aging population – coupled with rising obesity rates – will see around 280,000 people die from cancer every year in Britain by 2050, the World Health Organization predicts.
And despite being in “a golden age of cancer research,” delays in diagnosis and treatment are causing “too many people to lose their lives.”
The slow progress has also left Britain behind comparable countries such as Australia, Canada, Denmark and Norway.
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But while the picture looks bleak, experts say it can be ‘solved’ if ministers commit to a 10-year strategy for prevention, diagnosis and treatment.
The report, written by experts from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, shows that ten-year survival for all forms of cancer combined has doubled since the early 1970s.
The proportion of patients expected to survive ten years or more has risen from 24 percent in 1971/72 to 48 percent in 2010/2011.
But since then the pace of improvement has only increased by two percentage points to 50 percent.
While the annual increase in survival averaged 2.7 percent at the turn of the millennium, it generally rose by only 0.6 percent in the period up to 2018, the latest available figures show.
It means that survival increased three to five times faster in the decades before 2010, the researchers note.
The poor outcomes in Britain compared to other countries are likely due to the speed at which people are diagnosed and their access to the best treatments.
The report says: ‘Research also suggests that differences in policies between countries may explain some of this international variation.
‘Countries with consistent cancer policies saw the greatest improvements in cancer survival between 1995 and 2014.’
Lifestyle factors are also important: around four in ten cases of cancer in Britain are preventable.
While the cases caused by smoking continue to decline, the cases caused by obesity are moving in the opposite direction: the number of cancer cases caused by alcohol consumption, poor diet and lack of exercise are all increasing.
Overweight and obesity cause around 22,800 cases and 9,200 cancer deaths in Britain every year, and these numbers are expected to rise as the country’s waistline grows.
Lung, colorectal, melanoma, skin and breast cancer account for almost two-thirds (63 percent) of all preventable cancer cases, and public health campaigns are needed to reduce these numbers.
Although research has driven much of the improvements in survival to date, Cancer Research UK estimates that there will be a funding gap of more than £1 billion for research into the disease by the end of the next decade.
The dark blue dots show the five-year cancer survival rate in Britain, while the dark blue dots show the equivalent figure for the top-performing International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership country (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand or Norway). It shows that cancer survival rates in Britain are up to 12 percent lower than in comparable countries
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Meanwhile, repeatedly missed treatment goals and a shortage of radiologists are also taking their toll.
About 71.9 percent of patients urgently referred for suspected cancer in November 2023 were diagnosed with cancer or ruled out within 28 days, which is below the 75 percent target.
The percentage of patients who waited longer than 62 days from an urgent referral for suspected cancer treatment to their first definitive cancer treatment in November was 65.2 percent. This is well below the target of 85 percent.
The report comes after the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday that the number of cancer cases in Britain will rise by 37 percent to 624,582 by 2050.
There were 181,807 deaths from cancer in Britain in 2022, they said, and this is expected to rise to 279,004 by 2050 – an increase of 53 percent.
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Jon Shelton, head of cancer intelligence at Cancer Research UK, said cancer death rates are falling but there are many areas for improvement.
He added: ‘People wait far too long to be diagnosed and start treatment, with cancer waiting time targets consistently missed. And we must prevent more cancer cases.’
An NHS spokesperson said more people are being diagnosed and treated with cancer than ever before, at its early stages, when the disease is easier to treat and survival rates are higher than ever.
He added: ‘But there is still more to do, and the NHS continues to test and apply the latest developments in treatments, alongside national awareness campaigns, screening programs and new initiatives to increase early diagnosis – including bringing lung and liver checks closer to people. the community and rolling out the latest genetic tests to identify people at risk of cancer early.
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‘The NHS will not stop in its efforts to ensure people are seen and diagnosed as early as possible, and it is vital that people continue to come forward if they are concerned about symptoms – getting checked saves lives.’
The report praised the government’s new proposals to reduce smoking, saying: ‘It is essential that this is implemented as it could help prevent around 18,200 cases of cancer by 2040 and ultimately help end cancer caused by smoking.’
A spokesperson for the DHSC said: ‘We welcome the news that record numbers of people are surviving long-term cancer, with people diagnosed earlier and the NHS treating record numbers of cancer patients over the last two years. But we know there is still more work to do.
‘We are working to make access to cancer services faster and easier. We have also invested £2.3 billion in accelerating diagnosis and launched 153 Community Diagnostic Centers across England, which will help us reach our target of detecting 75 percent of all cancers at stage 1 or 2 by 2028.
‘Smoking causes 1 in 4 cancer deaths and leads to 80,000 deaths per year. Our plans to prevent children aged 15 or younger from ever being legally sold tobacco this year will protect future generations from several forms of cancer.”