Britain defies critics, says ALEX BRUMMER: Fascinating to see IMF revise gloomy projections for UK in its spring outlook
- Despite attempts to portray the UK economy as down and out, it refuses to oblige
- No excuse for BoE to predict we were looking at a long recession
- Office for National Statistics says otherwise: there is a lot to be optimistic about
Conventional wisdom about the UK economy is uniformly negative. It is regrettable that the hoped-for improvement in the inflation outlook so far has not been reflected in the official figures.
That could soon correct if the energy price explosion that followed the war in Ukraine fades through the data.
Still, there is much to be optimistic about. The benefits may be a long way off, but Britain’s membership of the oddly-named CPTPP, which links our economy to 11 countries on the burgeoning Pacific Rim, is to be commended.
Continental Europe is still our largest trading partner and the US is the country with which we have the largest trade surpluses. But the Pacific Rim is the big growth opportunity. Britain’s brilliant financial and professional services sector is particularly well suited to penetrate.
Despite attempts to portray the British economy as down and out, she refuses to cooperate. There is no excuse for the Bank of England’s November forecast (since revised) that real incomes are coming under severe pressure and that we are looking down on the longest recession in the country’s history. The data from the Office for National Statistics says otherwise.
Any port in a storm: Despite attempts to portray the UK economy as down and out, she refuses to oblige
Production even increased by 0.1 percent in the last quarter of last year, a recession was avoided and real disposable household income rose by 1.3 percent. Viewers of contemporary data, such as store visits, must be convinced that the glass is half full.
A forecast from Lloyds Bank shows that UK business was more confident last month than at any time since last spring and reinforces the picture that the UK will steer clear of recession. Hiring is improving, employment growth is picking up and wage pressures are easing.
What is not yet clear is whether the recent global banking turmoil will affect the availability of credit. It will be fascinating to see if the International Monetary Fund revises its gloomy forecast for the UK when it releases its Spring World Economic Outlook later this month. It should be.
Amex checked
American Express customers pay £250 a year for the privilege of using the company’s credit card and accumulating BA Avios frequent flyer points. As a user since 2016, I was surprised last year to learn that my card had been suspended while Amex waited for new information. Several direct debits were automatically canceled (without notice) and I was experiencing my card being declined in several locations. When I contacted UK headquarters in Brighton I was told the information was needed due to money laundering rules. Other holders reported similar experiences.
There came a list of information needed for verification, including passport/driver’s license for me and my husband, utility bills, recent bank statements and details of my income. That last information was downloaded online, but Amex refused to accept my pay slip as proof of income.
A formal letter from my employers with this information was sent by certified mail to the appropriate department in Brighton. Yesterday I received an email from Amex stating that I was in the last chance saloon and that more information was needed “to avoid suspension.” This was incorrect as it has already been suspended! When I tried to address the matter over the phone, I was referred to the Philippines.
The officer on the other end of the line put me on hold three times “to check his notes” and concluded that none of the required information had been provided. This is despite a letter from Amex to my home ten days ago explaining that the only missing records were proof of income. It was provided both online and by mail.
The experience raises two separate issues. First, why has it taken Amex seven years to verify compliance with money laundering rules? Second, why is the company’s customer service so misinformed?
My advice is if you’re tempted to subscribe to an Amex card, don’t. Save yourself a subscription and aggravation.
Royal approval
The UK’s latest energy plan, buried in Powering Up Britain, is one of the most fascinating projects backed by none other than Mohammed IV, the King of Morocco.
The Xlinks project will supply the UK with high-voltage electricity exclusively from an onshore wind, solar and battery site in the North African country. Under current plans, the submarine cable would come ashore in Cornwall. Could be a glorious tale of two kingdoms.