Both Labor and the Tories would leave the NHS worse off than under cuts, the think tank says

Labor and the Conservatives would both leave the NHS with a lower increase in spending than during the years of Tory austerity, according to an independent analysis of their manifestos by a leading health think tank.

The respected Nuffield Trust’s assessment of NHS costs

The Nuffield Trust said that “the manifestos imply an increase (in annual funding for the NHS) between 2024-25 and 2028-29 of 1.5% per year for the Liberal Democrats, 0.9% for the Conservatives and 1 .1% for Labour.

“Both the Conservative and Labor proposals would represent a lower level of funding than the period of ‘austerity’ between 2010-2011 and 2014-2015.

“This would be an unprecedented slowdown in NHS finances and it is inconceivable that this would be accompanied by the dramatic recovery that all promises. This slowdown follows three years of particularly tight finances.”

The trust added that the planned funding increases would “make the coming years the tightest funding period in the history of the NHS”.

Sally Gainsbury, senior policy analyst at the Nuffield Trust and a leading authority on NHS funding, said: “They will struggle to pay for existing staff, let alone the additional staff committed to in the staffing plan. It’s completely unrealistic.”

A Labor spokesperson, when asked about the Nuffield Trust analysis, said the party would “deliver the investment and reform NHS needs”.

They added: “Our £2 billion investment will deliver an additional 40,000 appointments per week in the evenings and weekends, a doubling of the number of scanners, 700,000 additional emergency dental appointments, 8,500 additional mental health professionals and support in mental health in every school and community. We will pay for it by going after tax evaders, because working people cannot afford another tax increase.”

The state of the NHS has played a key role in the election so far. Rishi Sunak promised to reduce waiting lists from a record high of 7.2 million last year, but there are now 7.5 million people waiting for treatment – a figure that rose again last week.

Labor has promised 2 million extra appointments a year, but the NHS currently carries out a total of 92 million appointments, tests and operations every year.

Labor plans to reduce waiting list times with weekend clinics, tap into spare capacity in the private sector and double the number of scanners to make faster diagnoses. It says the plan will cost £1.3 billion, paid for by a crackdown on tax avoidance, but it is a small part of the annual NHS budget for England of around £165 billion.

The analysis will add to a growing feeling that neither of the main parties is making clear to voters the real implications of their tax and spending policies.

Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies said if Labor wants to deliver the change it has promised, it needs to leave more money on the table. “The Labor manifesto gives no indication that there is a plan for where the money would come from to fund this,” he said.

The findings come as leading NHS figures call for a Labor government to get serious about reforming and funding the NHS within its first 100 days in office.

Sarah Wollaston, former Tory MP and chair of the House of Commons health committee, who last week announced she would quit as chair of NHS Devon over attempts to impose more cuts, called on Labor to change capital spending rules which punish trusts that overspend by cutting their capital budgets.

“It’s particularly perverse that you’re punishing people who need it most and essentially taking away some of their ability to get back on track,” Wollaston said. “Systems like Devon urgently need more capital to operate more efficiently.”

She said a Labor government would also need to address public health issues and the need for greater emphasis on prevention, which had been neglected by the Tories since 2010. “We can’t afford to wait,” she said. The row over NHS spending comes A new analysis shows Labor and the Tories may be on course for their lowest combined vote share since the Second World War.

The latest poll for the Observer also shows a shift away from the main parties. Labor has retained a dominant 17-point lead over the Tories with less than three weeks to go until election day. However, Reform and the Lib Dems are each 2 points higher.

A Tory spokesperson said: “The Conservatives have taken bold action to reduce waiting lists and secure the future of the NHS, with the overall budget increasing by more than a third in real terms since 2010 and our £100,000 long-term workforce plan 2.4 billion – the first of its kind – supplying a record number of doctors and nurses.”