Bombshell poll reveals who is leading in the congressional district that could decide election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
- Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is at Stake
- The state distributes its electors evenly and could decide a neck-and-neck race
Vice President Kamala Harris has an eight-point lead in a key congressional district, and if it comes to a decisive victory in the Electoral College, it could decide the race for the White House.
Her lead in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is the largest of the cycle, according to a poll by Remington Research Group. Trump had a narrow lead over President Joe Biden until his race ended.
The district’s importance is clear from the candidates’ schedules. Donald Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance was there Wednesday for a grassroots fundraiser at a bar. Kamala Harris’ running mate Tim Walz stopped there on his way to Chicago for the Democratic convention, trying to fill out his biography.
He grew up in Butte and Valentine, Nebraska. Walz gave a speech at the convention Wednesday night that highlighted his Midwestern roots and his time as an assistant coach on a high school football team. Cheering delegates held signs that read “Coach Walz.”
President Joe Biden won the district in 2020, 52-46. That ultimately didn’t matter in that race, which wasn’t exactly close, where he won 306 to 232.
Harris narrowly leads Trump on economic issues, 47 to 46.
Vice President Kamala Harris has an eight-point lead in a key Nebraska congressional district
It’s hard to predict how things will play out in November, but Democratic Party leaders including Harris and former presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama warn the race could be close. Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, David Plouffe, said some state battlegrounds could be decided by one or two votes in each precinct.
Trump and Harris campaigns battle it out over Obama-based battleground
Harris’ running mate Tim Walz emphasizes his Nebraska roots
In Nebraska, the five electors are distributed proportionally, with two at-large electors and three other electors distributed by district.
The Omaha seat is usually the only one at stake. It was split for a second time in the GOP-leaning state in 2020.
Walz tried to put the close race Wednesday night in football terms. “It’s the fourth quarter. We’re down a field goal. But we’re on offense and we’ve got the ball. We’re driving down the field. And boy, do we have the right team,” he told the convention crowd.
Harris is at 50 percent of the vote in the poll, while Donald Trump is at 42 percent.
Under only one of the Electoral College scenarios, Harris could retain most of Biden’s 2020 map, including his “blue wall” in the Midwest, while giving up the battlegrounds of Nevada and Arizona — provided she keeps the Nebraska district that Biden won.