Biden would beat Trump by six points in a 2024 rematch IF he is convicted before the election
Biden would beat Trump by six points in a 2024 rematch IF he is convicted before the election
- A new poll shows that the consequences of a conviction could cost Donald Trump his head
- If Trump is convicted of any of the four charges, the chance that Trump will overtake President Joe Biden decreases by 4%
- Most polls show Trump in a near dead-heat with Biden in a 2024 rematch
Donald Trump trails by just two points in a hypothetical 2024 rematch with President Joe Biden — but his chances drop by 4 percent if he is convicted before Election Day.
Most investigations show tension between Trump and Biden, but the latest provides a preview of what could happen if Trump is convicted in one of the four sets of charges against him.
The latest WPA Intelligence survey shows Biden beating Trump regardless of whether he is convicted or not, but the ex-president has a better chance of a second term if he doesn’t stay behind bars.
In a post-conviction vote, Trump would lose 39 to 45 percent to Biden, the survey shows. But if they both get back on the ballot and there is no conviction, the gap will narrow by 4 percent, giving Trump 41 percent, compared to Biden’s 43 percent.
Even Republican support sees a small drop of 5 percent if Trump is convicted before he goes to the polls next year. At least 6 percent of Republican voters say they would not vote for the former president if he is convicted.
A new poll shows the consequences of a conviction could cost Donald Trump a second chance at the presidency, as his chances of overtaking President Joe Biden drop by 4% if convicted
Most polls, including the latest WPA Intelligence poll, show Trump in a near dead-heat against Biden in a hypothetical 2024 rematch
However, a whopping 81 percent of Republicans say a conviction doesn’t matter to them, and they would still vote for Trump — compared to the 86 percent who would vote for him as long as he remained conviction-free.
The first set of charges against Trump were filed earlier this year in connection with the alleged “hush money” payment he paid to porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. A few months later, he was indicted for withholding classified documents after leaving office
More recently, Trump was charged in two separate cases for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results – the first in Washington, DC and the second in Fulton County, Georgia.
Nearly two-thirds of voters — 63 percent — agree with the charges against Trump in Georgia, according to the poll shared exclusively with the New York Post.
Chris Wilson, CEO of WPA Intelligence, also leads polling and data for the political action committee, in partnership with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Never Back Down PAC.
DeSantis usually ranks a distant second to Trump, but recently regional polls have shown him trailing other candidates such as biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley.
WPA notes that the PAC supporting DeSantis for the nomination did not sponsor the survey.