Biden says he won’t step aside. But if he does, here’s why Harris is the favorite to replace him
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden insists that only ‘the Lord Almighty’ can convince him drop out of the presidential raceBut if he changes his mind, Vice President Kamala Harris is by far the best candidate to replace him.
Harris would have an edge over several of the most talked about Democratic alternatives, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom And Michigan Governor Gretchen WhitmerShe is already on a winning presidential ticket with Biden, has spent years building goodwill among the party’s core voter bases and would likely manage a massive campaign fund amassed by Biden’s re-election.
Below is a closer look at her prospects in a possible open primary:
The president easily secured the Democratic nomination and party rules prevent him from simply handing over the delegates he garnered at next month’s Democratic National Convention. But a number of delegates have already signaled they would be loyal to Harris.
If Biden chooses Harris, it could limit potential chaos and prevent floor fights that would do lasting damage to whoever takes on Republican Donald Trump.
“Harris is the most logical choice to continue Biden’s legacy,” said Andrew Feldman, a Democratic strategist who works closely with several state parties. He stressed that the question was purely hypothetical, as Biden insists he will not withdraw.
Feldman added that the Biden administration’s agenda has been “tremendously popular in terms of the issues that they’ve advocated” and that the president and Harris “have done that in partnership.”
Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist from South Carolina, noted that voters put the 78-year-old Biden in the White House four years ago knowing that Harris would be next in line, and that Biden, at age 81, fended off challengers in this year’s primary because Democratic voters knew Harris remained his number two.
“Democrats voted for Joe Biden with Kamala Harris,” Seawright said.
Harris is the first woman to serve as vice president and also the first black woman and person of South Asian descent. African Americans are The largest and most loyal group of Democratic supporters.
Defeating a historic No. 2 for someone else — even a popular alternative from a key swing state — would be difficult. Being seen as leading the charge against someone who broke gender and racial barriers could forever mark the challenger as disloyal in future Democratic primaries.
Glynda Carr, who leads the Higher Heights political action committee that supports Black women candidates across the country, said public suggestions that Harris could be bypassed for another top Democrat in Biden’s absence show “how much Black women are often overlooked.”
“You want black women organizing our homes, our blocks, our churches, our sororities?” Carr asked. “We have to stand behind our leadership.”
Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett of Texas said it is “impossible to understate” what it means to Black women that Harris holds national office.
Since Biden’s disastrous debate, Democrats have floated a parade of top alternatives to replace the president, including Whitmer and Pennsylvania Gov. Newsom. Josh Shapiro and the governor of Illinois. JB Pritzker have been the subject of rumors. They have all said they will continue to support Biden.
But in dozens of interviews, Democratic operatives, pollsters and elected officials say there hasn’t been the kind of furious political jockeying for support for anyone other than Harris at the convention that would be necessary if Biden were to leave office. Such discussions have been quiet and tentative, and would almost certainly be conducted in public if Biden were to leave the race, making them harder to sustain.
“Everybody would rather be a starter than a pinch hitter,” Feldman said.
Barry Goodman, a Michigan attorney who raises money for the Democratic Party and co-chaired Whitmer’s state campaigns, said he was not aware of any coordinated effort by the governor to drum up support.
Campaign finance could also help smooth the transition from Biden to Harris. The vice president, as his official running mate, can access the $91 million the president’s campaign has raised (growing to $240 million if we include Democratic affiliates) in ways that Democratic alternatives are unlikely to be able to.
Trump, for his part, has been trying to motivate donors with the idea that Democrats can trade Biden for Harris. The former president sent out fundraising emails on Monday with the titles “Biden’s dropping out” and “President Kamala Harris?”
At 59, the vice president is 22 years younger than Biden. As a former prosecutor, she can deliver a blistering attack in a debate — as Biden himself once experienced during the 2020 Democratic presidential primary. when Harris got him about his past opposition to school busing as a means of combating racial segregation.
The vice president’s legal background could also more closely align with the ideals of the current Democratic Party, which has largely shifted in recent years to a focus on criminal justice and a law-and-order message following nationwide protests against racial injustice In 2020, the defund the police movement helped revive it.
Biden has seen his approval rating among black Americans plummet, a trend Harris hopes to reverse before November. Still, Biden has long struggled with low approval ratings among Americans generally, and the vice president hasn’t fared much better.
About 39% of American adults have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of the vice president, in line with Biden’s 40% favorability. But a AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research A poll conducted in June found that slightly fewer people have an unfavorable opinion of Harris, at 49%, compared to 57% for Biden.
Harris has a 62% favorability among Black Americans, compared with 37% among Hispanic Americans and 35% among white Americans. Those are all similar to Biden’s, though there could be more opportunity for her to shape opinions. About 12% of U.S. adults said they aren’t familiar enough with Harris to have an opinion, while nearly everyone has an opinion about Biden.
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Barrow reported from New Orleans. Associated Press Polling Editor Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux contributed to this report.