- Opinion polls in April’s presidential election show Biden marginally ahead of Trump with seven months until November showdown
- Follows a series of national surveys with former President Biden far ahead
- Opinion polls spell trouble for Biden as black voters in six swing states favor Trump
A series of general election polls have shown President Joe Biden, 81, a few points ahead of Donald Trump, 77, with just seven months until the 2020 showdown.
Despite this slight uptick in recent head-to-head clashes with Trump, the president is slipping with black voters in swing states, which is a crucial voting group in the 2024 election and could harm Biden’s chances for re-election.
A Wall Street Journal poll Results taken earlier this month show that black registered voters in six of the seven swing states considered would cast their votes for former President Trump over Biden if the election were held today.
In Wisconsin, one of the swing states in the poll, the two geriatric candidates were tied.
Meanwhile, several polls conducted in April show Biden either tied or ahead of Trump by one to four percentage points.
New April presidential election polls show President Joe Biden narrowly ahead of Donald Trump with just seven months until November’s showdown
But separate polls spell trouble for Biden in his 2024 re-election bid, with black voters in six of seven swing states favoring Trump over the current president. Pictured: Blacks for Trump members gather outside the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta, Georgia in August 2023 to support the president as he arrived to turn himself in and have his mugshot taken
The results of all general election polls followed by the FiveThirtyEight average in April are within their respective margins of error.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 4 to 8 of 833 registered voters had the widest margin with Biden in the lead, by 4 points — 41 percent to 37 percent.
In two separate national polls, the two candidates are tied at 43 percent, but a third survey from TIPP Insights puts them at 38 percent when third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are taken into account .
The same TIPP Insights poll, conducted April 3-5, shows Biden ahead of Trump by 3 percentage points (40-43 percent), with the former and current president the only two eligible in the survey of 1,265 registered voters taken.
A Morning Consult poll conducted April 5-7 among 6,236 registered voters — by far the largest sample size — shows Trump leading Biden by 1 percentage point.
While national polls are important, regional surveys in swing states are more indicative of how they could impact the 2024 election, with just seven states being the determining factor that could determine the outcome in November.
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are being closely watched ahead of the 2024 presidential election.
While polls in battleground states often swing back and forth between Democratic and Republican candidates, recent WSJ polls show Biden losing steam among Black voters in these states.
In North Carolina, he sees the biggest drop with this voting bloc, as 49 percent say they would vote for Trump if the election were held today, compared to the 43 percent who say they would vote for Biden.
April Wall Street Journal polls show Trump ahead among black voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — and tied with Biden in Wisconsin
In Arizona, Trump is ahead by 5 percentage points among black voters and in Nevada by 4 percent.
The margin of error for the Journal poll is 4 percentage points and 600 registered voters were surveyed in each state.
Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania all fall within the margin of error between 1 and 3 percent, but still show that black voters there favor Trump over Biden.
“I think it’s critical for him to win back more black men,” said Democratic pollster Michael Bocian, who conducted the WSJ poll, when discussing Biden’s chances in 2024.
Wisconsin was the only swing state where Biden had ties to Trump, and the president did not win a majority of Black voters in any of the seven in the survey.