That was a close shave. Inflation held steady at 4 percent in January, rather than rising to 4.2 percent, which most economists had predicted and the rest of us feared.
While these are only the smallest of differences, even the smallest increase in consumer prices would have had a disproportionate impact on whether the Bank of England follows through with its first expected rate cut sooner rather than later.
The better-than-expected inflation figures, which were also lower than wage growth, brought good news everywhere, especially for teetotal lizards who like comfort food.
Prices for food and non-alcoholic drinks fell 0.4 percent month-on-month in January, the first fall in two years, helped by price cuts on bread and cereals, cream crackers, sponge cakes and chocolate chip cookies.
And furniture prices fell by the fastest monthly rate in four years, with big cuts to the cost of kitchens, dining tables and chairs and leather sofas. Time to do that DIY.
Relief: Inflation held steady at 4% in January instead of rising to 4.2%, raising hopes that the Bank of England (pictured) will be confident enough to cut rates at its May meeting
It was these lower prices that more than offset the increase in gas and electricity costs after Ofgem’s energy price cap rose last month.
Core inflation, excluding energy and food, remained stable at 5.1 percent in January, as did the CPIH, the inflation measure that takes into account the housing costs of owner-occupiers.
Even better news was that the consumer price index, the figure often used by unions in wage negotiations, actually fell to 4.9 percent in the year leading up to January, compared to 5.2 percent the month before.
If, like me, you’re a glass-half-full type, then it’s now almost a certainty that the Bank will be confident enough to cut rates at its May meeting.
Unless there are major external shocks, the trajectory is clearly downward, so there is no doubt that the Bank needs to start cutting back.
When in doubt, members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee should listen to their former economist Andy Haldane, who said in an interview this week that he would have cut rates by now, probably late last year given Britain’s sluggish growth . and progress in curbing inflation.
More pertinently, Haldane added that since inflation will be within 2 percent of its 2 percent target in the spring, the bigger danger now is that the Bank will be too slow to cut rates – just as they was too slow to raise interest rates when inflation took off. roared forward.
Haldane does not speak with the benefit of hindsight: he warned as early as June 2021 that inflation was rising and interest rates had to be raised.
As he notes, the job of monetary policy is to look ahead to inflation. He was right then and he is right now.
Romance hit
Sarah J Maas is 37, very pretty, married with two children, and has sold more than 38 million books translated into 37 languages.
What more could a girl want? Another bestseller.
And she gets it: her latest novel, published last month, is number one in the US, Britain and Australia.
House of Flame and Shadow is the third in her series of so-called “romantic” fiction and follows the story of Bryce Quinlan, a half-human, half-fairytale figure in the Crescent City.
It is also the third fastest-selling fantasy novel since records began, with 44,761 copies sold in its first week.
Oh, and the multiverse Maas is also a star on TikTok and Instagram, with the #ACOTAR hashtag racking up 8.5 billion views.
At the midnight parties for the release of her latest novel in Manhattan, the Valentino-clad writer was mobbed like a rock star by fans queuing in the street.
Bloomsbury puts it more modestly: Maas is a publishing phenomenon.
She has also had tremendous luck with Bloomsbury, which has published all 15 of her previous books in English and has a further six titles under contract.
Like the Harry Potter effect, the Maas effect – along with strong air fryer cookbook sales – means Bloomsbury is set to exceed profit and sales forecasts. By a large margin.
Anyone who invested in Bloomsbury early on is looking pretty good too.
Shares shot up 5.4 percent to a record high after the update. Investors who saw that the lockdown would lead to us all reading more books will have seen the shares more than double since the summer of 2020.
Are they still worth buying? Who knows?
But Bloomsbury is one of the few winners from the pandemic that keeps winning.
Some links in this article may be affiliate links. If you click on it, we may earn a small commission. That helps us fund This Is Money and keep it free to use. We do not write articles to promote products. We do not allow a commercial relationship to compromise our editorial independence.