Battlefield 2024: Next administration to pursue reform agenda, says Citigroup

Citigroup said on Tuesday it expected the next government to pursue a reform agenda with a focus on the infrastructure, manufacturing and energy sectors, assuming political continuity after the general election. “We also expect a new push towards disinvestment in key sectors,” said the report, which analyzes key areas of policy continuity and changes that the new government could consider.

Drawing inferences from past election trends, Citigroup says a simple consolidation of opposition votes is unlikely to significantly impact election results for the BJP given its dominant vote share in 2019. “Bharatiya Janata Party’s strength at heart of Hindi is also its weakness given the concentration risk. The big unknowns: Relative political uncertainty is greatest in the four key states of Maharashtra, Karnataka, West Bengal and Bihar. Our scenario analysis of shifts in vote share suggests that the NDA could comfortably cross the majority threshold even if there were a 5 percent shift in vote share. A shift in vote share of 7 percent in favor of the National Democratic Alliance will take them past their target of 400 seats,” the report said.

First print: April 9, 2024 | 11:44 PM IST