Once again we hear predictions of significant price increases for the SSD market, but this is tempered by the expectation that at least the next round of rising costs won’t be as painful as what we just experienced.
The last report from analyst firm TrendForce indicates that consumers could ultimately witness price increases of between 10% and 15% in the second quarter of 2024 (which we have just entered – how time flies, we know).
That sounds bad – and it’s obviously not great – but it does represent a decrease in the steepness of price increases compared to the first quarter, where SSDs rose 23% to 28% due to their price tags.
Consumers will also be better off than businesses, relatively speaking, as in the second quarter, enterprise SSDs are expected to see a 20% to 25% increase, which is not much better than the 23% to 28% increase in the first quarter ( same as consumers).
Analysis: buy soon – or wait?
Keep in mind that Q1 increases are still estimated and Q2 numbers are obviously just a prediction of what will happen, at least according to TrendForce’s sources and information.
Still, we’re now seeing a glimmer of positivity in the consumer SSD arena, in terms of a slowdown in the rate at which price tags are rising – good news driven by an increase in production from Kioxia and WDC, we’re told. (But other suppliers are expected to remain more conservative in their production going forward, TrendForce notes).
Is this a hopeful sign that perhaps as we head into the third quarter we’ll be past the worst of all this? We’ll say for now that this seems like a possible prospect, especially since we’re told by the analyst firm that PC makers are cutting SSD orders in the second quarter and that this will likely continue into the second half of 2024, which is a favorable effect should have on the offer. and demand balance to hopefully lower prices further.
In other words, we may now be at the point where it’s a good idea to wait and buy an SSD drive, especially if you’re not in a rush to buy one of the best SSDs. Keep in mind that prices will still rise this quarter through July, even though the upward movement may not be as large (and will of course vary by model).
This, of course, assumes that TrendForce is right with its latest report. It’s worth remembering that the company’s forecast for Q1 was previously a 15% to 20% increase, so it undershoots what actually happened (or TrendForce’s estimate thereof) by 8 %. In early 2024, we also heard some pretty ominous things about massive price increases for SSDs, so in short: we’re far from out of the proverbial woods yet.
Seeing the picture after the Q2 stats are out will likely give us a much clearer picture of where SSD prices are headed over the course of this year.
Through Tom’s hardware