The rate of Australian population growth is expected to slow in the coming decades as immigration levels decline from record levels and couples have fewer children.
The Treasury Department’s Intergenerational Report, to be released Thursday, forecasts average annual population growth of 1.1 percent over the next four decades.
This would be a major drop from the 2022 level of 1.9 percent, which was among the highest in the developed world.
A record 387,000 migrants moved to Australia last year, with 353,670 in the 12 months to June.
But the Treasury Department predicts that this number will moderate to its pre-pandemic level of 235,000.assumed to remain fixed in the long run”.
“Population growth will continue to be supported by overseas migration and natural increase, but both are expected to decline relative to population size,” the report said.
The rate of Australian population growth is expected to decline over the coming decades as immigration levels decline from record levels (pictured shows Sydney’s Wynyard railway station during rush hour)
But a lower net overseas migration rate over the coming decades – based on permanent arrivals and long-term arrivals minus departures – would still be more than double the annual level of the early 2000s.
Then it went into the six digits and remained at a high level until the 2020 pandemic caused the border to remain closed to migrants and international students for 21 months.
Net overseas migration was expected to account for 0.7 percentage point of Australia’s average annual population growth over the next four decades.
That would be a decrease from one percentage point in 2024-2025.
Australia’s population was expected to grow to 40.5 million in fiscal year 2062-2063, up from 26.3 million at the end of 2022.
However, the Treasury Department’s inaugural 2002 Intergenerational Report incorrectly predicted that the 25 million milestone would be reached in 2042 — something that happened in 2018.
The Australian population was also expected to become much older, as the number of people aged 65 and over would double and the number of those aged 85 and over more than tripled.
As a result, care for the elderly would take up a larger share of budget expenditure, because the death rate would rise faster than the birth rate.
“Natural growth is expected to decline as the population ages, with deaths expected to increase faster than births,” the Treasury Department report said.
“Australians are expected to live longer and stay healthier into old age, while having fewer children.”
Australia’s population was also expected to age, as the number of people aged 65 and over would double and those aged 85 and over would triple (pictured is a stock photo)
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said an older population would increasingly become a focus of government policy (he was pictured at Labor’s national conference last week)
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said an older population would increasingly become a focus of government policy.
“Our population will grow more slowly, our people will live longer and our healthcare economy will take on an even more central focus in the coming decades,” he said.
Last year’s births made up just 22 percent of new arrivals, with a natural increase of 109,800 compared to 387,000 new migrants.
This increased the population by 496,800, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The Treasury said the predicted rate of population growth for the next 40 years would be slower than any 40-year period since Federation in 1901, when Australia had a population of 3,788,123.
Life expectancy at birth was expected to increase to 89 years and six months for females in 2063, compared to 85 years and two months today, and to 87 years for males, from 81 years and four months.
Life expectancy will continue to rise, but the rate of increase is expected to slow down.