Australia’s Covid surge to peak before Christmas as Victorian hospitals get power to ban staff leave

The fourth wave of covid cases in Australia is expected to peak well before Christmas, experts say.

Australia recorded more than 100,000 infections last week, with New South Wales and Victoria recording the most new cases.

While infections will continue to rise, Australians have been told to expect a decline by the time Christmas rolls around, partly because widespread immunity means the virus itself is getting “milder and milder”.

The official model has pegged both NSW and Victoria to see a peak in early December, while South Australia’s chief health officer, Professor Nicola Spurrier, had hoped for a similar timeline for her state.

“We are reaching the top,” Professor Spurrier said.

“Until we see those case numbers come down, I can’t officially tell you we’re at the top, but we’re certainly on that upper plateau.

“We are very hopeful that we will be on the other side of that wave well before Christmas, so we can all enjoy a healthy Christmas.”

But despite the fact that cases will decline in Victoria, plans are already in place to prevent medical staff from taking vacations over the summer holidays as the state tries to prevent its healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed.

Victoria will move to stage three of a four-stage plan, her chief health officer, Brett Sutton, announced in an update.

That will give public health systems the power to cancel staff leave starting Saturday if necessary, with telehealth appointments being preferred.

“This is a reflection of both the large number of people with Covid in hospital, particularly in our metropolitan health services, and the ongoing licensing challenges across sites leading up to the holiday period,” the professor’s update said. Sutton.

The most serious measure in the fourth stage would be the suspension of elective surgery, although it is not expected to take place.

Health experts also don’t expect the number of deaths and intensive care admissions to match what happened last Christmas.

Monash University associate professor of epidemiologist James Trauer said cases in Victoria could peak as early as next week.

He added that that would mean intensive care admissions and deaths could rise slightly after the spike in new infections.

“I think it’s highly unlikely that we’ll see the serious outcomes and deaths and ICU admissions come anywhere near what we saw over the summer, and then with the BA.5 wave coming mid-year, Professor Trauer told the herald sun.

He said widespread immunity meant Covid was now getting “milder and milder”.

New South Wales recorded the most cases this week: 37,796 compared to the 31,531 it reported last week. The state has reported 32 more Covid-related deaths during the reporting period.

There are 1,481 people still being treated in hospital for Covid, while 38 people are in intensive care.

Meanwhile, Victoria has reported 26,971 new cases in the past seven days, up from 22,281 last week.

The state’s seven-day rolling average for hospitalizations was 550, while 21 cases were admitted to intensive care.

Covid hospitalizations in Victoria reached their highest daily number in four months.

There were also 54 deaths reported in the past seven days, up from 68 the previous week.

South Australia posted a slight increase with 9,684 new covid cases, up from 9,000 last week. The state has reported 12 deaths in the past week.

There are 128 patients in the hospital with Covid, including eight in intensive care.

Meanwhile, Queensland’s cases rose from 10,082 to 11,217 in a week, with the state recording 15 deaths during the latest reporting period.

The Northern Territory posted another big increase, with 750 new cases reported last week, up from 329 in the previous seven days.

There are 25 people hospitalized in the Top End, 10 more than last week.

The Territory also recorded two new deaths.

The ACT has reported 2,239 new cases this week, up from 1,757 last week.

The Territory has 33 active cases at the hospital and one death was reported this week.

As of November 30, there were 320 people hospitalized with the virus, while eight people remain in intensive care.

Western Australia has reported 11,762 new cases, up from 10,520 last week.

The state said there were 185 people with covid in the hospital, including four in intensive care, as of 4 p.m. on December 1.

Western Australian authorities announced during the week that there had been 14 deaths since November 19.