Australia’s population is expected to reach 27 million this week, more than three decades earlier than originally forecast, with serious implications for the country’s housing supply, infrastructure and urban planning.
Based on the forecast from the Treasury Department’s Intergenerational Report 2002, Australia’s population is currently expected to be as low as 23.4 million, but is likely to reach 27 million this Thursday morning, January 25.
Although subsequent Intergenerational Reports updated population growth, they still got the forecast completely wrong, said demographer Mark McCrindle.
“Road and public transport planning, land releases, housing developments and infrastructure decisions are made with an eye to 20 years into the future,” he told Daily Mail Australia.
“The problem with Australia’s population growth vastly exceeding forecasts is that housing supply is based on the wrong numbers.
Australia experienced the largest population increase ever last year, with more than 641,000 last year. The photo shows people arriving at Sydney Airport
“At current growth rates, Australia will reach a population of 50 million by 2054, 23 million more than predicted 22 years ago, and this highlights the significant challenges we face in infrastructure, resources and urban planning.”
Australia experienced its largest ever population increase last year, at more than 641,000 last year – which is more than the entire population of Tasmania.
The inability to accurately predict how much population growth will occur leads to real-world problems that go far beyond just a number on a page.
“For example, the fact is that the development of land release infrastructure, such as the Western Sydney Aerotropolis, for example, has a planning cycle of two to three decades,” Mr McCrindle said.
“And if the data on current infrastructure released about 20 years ago is way off, then it’s no wonder we don’t have the right zoning and suburban development for today.
“And if we keep getting it wrong, if today’s data won’t be where we are now in 20 years, then tomorrow’s plan won’t be right either.”
Mr McCrindle said that when the Treasury forecasts were made in 2002, the global economy was growing strongly “and migration was not yet such a significant feature”.
“The problem… is not that Treasury officials got the 2002 models wrong. It is that current policies have been wildly out of step with long-term averages, causing the numbers to be wrong.”
For example, he pointed out that the average annual net population increase through migration in Australia over the past decade was 235,000.
But in the last twelve months there was a net increase of 518,000.
“(That’s) more than twice as high as the long-term annual average, and that long-term average over the last decade is (also) above what the historical average has been,” he said.
With Australia’s population set to surpass 27 million this week, a demographer has said the inability to accurately predict this level of growth has very serious consequences for the country’s housing supply (pictured), infrastructure and urban planning.
Mr McCrindle put this in a wider context, saying it is an ‘ironclad law of property and population planning in Australia… that we always fall short of our housing development targets.
“The current Albanian target of 1.2 million homes will unfortunately fall well short (of what is needed).”
After decades of looking at demographic analysis, Mr McCrindle said there has never been a population group that has had to be downgraded, except when borders were closed due to the Covid pandemic.
“We always revise them because we always grow more than we plan, especially through migration,” he said.
“We always lag behind our housing plans and we always (underestimate) our population growth. That’s our problem.’
To better predict population growth and therefore plan housing, road and infrastructure needs, Mr McCrindle has some advice for the Albanian government.
‘Let’s first bring migration growth within the historical average range. “It puts us back at an increase of about 230,000 to 240,000 per year,” he said.
Newcomers to Australia are pictured traveling through Sydney International Airport on September 29, 2023
‘Secondly… make sure you put the relationships between overseas migration and natural growth (of births to deaths in Australia) back into those historical contexts as well.’
He said natural population increase has historically exceeded migration, but migration has slightly exceeded natural increase over the past 30 years.
‘At its maximum, migration probably amounted to two-thirds of (population) growth and natural growth to one-third.
“So if we were to take that cap as a new ceiling, that’s probably a good thing… it will provide a ceiling on growth and allow those ratios to balance out,” he said.