Australia could be dragged into war because of its AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, says expert

A leading defense expert has criticized the AUKUS nuclear submarine deal, saying it could force Australia to follow the US in a war against China.

Australia has committed to the ships under the trilateral AUKUS security pact involving the US and UK.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Tuesday it will cost Australian taxpayers a massive $268bn to $368bn over the next 30 years.

He was joined by British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden, as he announced in San Diego on Tuesday.

Hugh White of the Australian National University, emeritus professor of strategic studies and former deputy secretary of the Ministry of Defence, unleashed extraordinary criticism of the plan on Sunday.

His comment comes as concerns have been raised about Australia’s defense capability after classified maps revealed Beijing’s missiles could hit targets across most of the country.

Australia’s commitment to continue its acquisition of nuclear submarines under AUKUS was confirmed in San Diego on Tuesday by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, along with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden.

Professor Hugh White (pictured) has criticized the AUKUS deal, saying it is a promise Australia will follow the US in any future conflict with China

Professor Hugh White (pictured) has criticized the AUKUS deal, saying it is a promise Australia will follow the US in any future conflict with China

“This is a very serious transformation of the nature of our alliance with the United States,” Professor White said in an interview taped for ANU’s political podcast Democracy Sausage.

“The US doesn’t really care about our submarine capability — they care a lot about committing Australia to their containment strategy against China.”

Australia plans to procure between three and five US Virginia-class nuclear submarines as a stopgap measure before eight AUKUS-class nuclear submarines based on a British design are built in Adelaide, with the first to be completed by 2042.

Professor White said he could not understand why the US would sell its own submarines – of which they have fewer than they need – unless it was absolutely certain that Australia’s submarines would be available to them in the event of a major conflict in Asia.

He said a war between America and China over Taiwan would be “World War III” and would have a “very good chance” of becoming a nuclear conflict.

“Australia’s war experience has been shaped by the fact that we tend to be on the winning side, but there is no reason to expect America to win in a war with China over Taiwan,” he warned.

He suggested that there was also a high probability that the AUKUS deal would fail under a future US administration and deteriorating strategic environment.

Last week’s AUKUS announcement has raised questions about how an already stressed budget will accommodate associated costs.

It has also fueled concerns about how Australia can ensure it maintains the sovereign capability of the ships it acquires under the pact.

The US submarine deal will cost Australian taxpayers a massive $268 billion to $368 billion over the next 30 years (pictured, a crew member aboard the USS Asheville in Perth)

The US submarine deal will cost Australian taxpayers a massive $268 billion to $368 billion over the next 30 years (pictured, a crew member aboard the USS Asheville in Perth)

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's announcement of the AUKUS details has been met with both criticism and praise

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s announcement of the AUKUS details has been met with both criticism and praise

Professor White said there were cheaper, faster, less risky and less demanding ways for Australia to get the submarines it needed, labeling the AUKUS plan a waste of money that ‘makes no sense’.

“There won’t be an actual net increase in the number of submarines available well into the 2040s, even if it goes according to plan — which probably won’t happen,” he said.

It is not the first time Professor White has publicly criticized the AUKUS security agreement since it was signed by the Morrison government in 2021.

Last week he wrote an article for The Saturday Paper entitled ‘The AUKUS submarines will never happen’.

The publication of that article coincided with Paul Keating’s inflammatory appearance at the National Press Club in which he blasted the AUKUS pact as the “worst deal in history.”

Mr Keating – who served as Labor Prime Minister from 1991 to 1996 – also personally attacked Mr Albanese, cabinet members such as Foreign Secretary Penny Wong and journalists who questioned him on Wednesday.

Speaking on the ANU’s podcast, Professor White stopped endorsing Mr Keating’s language, but said he shared his concerns about AUKUS.

Former Prime Minister Paul Keating (pictured) denounced the scheme as the 'worst deal in history' at the National Press Club as he lashed out at the government

Former Prime Minister Paul Keating (pictured) denounced the scheme as the ‘worst deal in history’ at the National Press Club as he lashed out at the government

Secret maps have shown that Chinese land-based missiles can hit targets in most parts of Australia if fired from their bases in the South China Sea

Secret maps have shown that Chinese land-based missiles can hit targets in most parts of Australia if fired from their bases in the South China Sea

It comes as defense maps revealed China’s land-based DF-26 Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs) could hit targets in two-thirds of Australia.

The classified document shows the range of 3,000 to 5,000 kilometers of the missiles if they were fired from their base on Hainan Island or the country’s militarized islands in the South China Sea.

A launch from Hainan Island could destroy Darwin’s defense base, RAAF Tindal and RAAF Learmouth, the Naval Communications Station Harold E. Holt or any target in the northwest, reports The advertiser.

The news gets even worse as Beijing fires missiles from their militarized islands like Mischief Reef and Subi Reef, which are much closer to the country.

These strikes can take out targets in any area of ​​the Northern Territory, almost every inch of Western Australia, as far west as Townsville and the southwestern regions of South Australia.

Critical defense and intelligence facilities are scattered throughout these states, including but not limited to Pine Gap in the center of the country, RAAF Pearce in WA, and Fleet Base in the west.

It illustrates that China’s strong presence in the South China Sea could undermine Australia’s geographic advantages