As hopes faded with the setting sun, ROBERT HARDMAN explores the many unanswered questions about what could have caused the Bayesian disaster

And so the last glimmer of hope went down with the sun last night. As the body bags were rapidly arriving on a bleak Sicilian quayside late yesterday afternoon, it was feared that the first two to be recovered from the wreck of the 183ft British superyacht Bayesian were its owner, Mike Lynch, and his 18-year-old daughter Hannah.

According to Italian reports from the diving team, they were found in the same part of the hull, on their side in 150 feet of water, half a mile from the fishing village of Porticello.

Shortly afterwards, the remains of two more of the six missing passengers were found, brought to the surface and brought ashore.

The emergency services did their utmost every time to ensure that everything took place as dignified as possible.

Each body bag arrived in a procession of patrol boats and was then taken by firefighters to the Department of Civil Protection’s roped-off tent at the dock for registration.

Robert Hardman (pictured) witnesses the salvage operation after the sinking of the British yacht Bayesian on August 21, 2024

Rescue workers carry a body bag after a luxury yacht sank off the coast of Porticello, near the Sicilian city of Palermo yesterday

Rescue workers and divers from the Vigili del Fuoco, the Italian fire brigade, attended operations yesterday off the coast of Porticello, near Palermo.

Each was then taken in a separate ambulance under police escort to the main hospital in Palermo for further formalities. One person is still missing after Monday morning’s tragedy, which saw the world’s second-tallest yacht disappear in seconds, while another victim is due to be recovered today.

A special underwater drone continues to comb the wreck as best it can, while teams of divers from the fire brigade and police continue to search the Bayesian in ten-minute shifts – as long as time permits.

If there is one glimmer of comfort for Dr Lynch’s poor wife, Angela Bacares, and her eldest daughter, Esme, 21, it is the dive log which records that the first two bodies found yesterday – later reported to be those of Mike and Hannah Lynch – were in the same section of the yacht.

The fact that Angela may have managed to get to safety from the more accessible main cabin while Mike apparently did not, and that he was subsequently found in the same location as Hannah, could mean that he went looking for his daughter just before the Bayesian scale dropped.

Divers recover a body from the sinking of the British yacht Bayesian yesterday. Two of the bodies were found in the same part of the ship

In other words, did Mike Lynch die trying to save his daughter’s life?

Until we know the full chronology of what began as a panicked rescue attempt and ended as a salvage operation, we cannot say anything.

But that is undoubtedly the most poignant of the many questions that pile up in the wake of this tragedy.

For example, why didn’t Bayesian immediately right herself after being hit by the waterspout that would have sunk her?

A leading figure in the hunting industry, understandably reluctant to pass judgment on such a shocking event, merely points me to a clip from New Zealand.

Yesterday a fire brigade helicopter flew through the air above Porticello as the search was underway

Rescue crews and divers operate on the water above the sunken superyacht yesterday

The superyacht (pictured) was moored off the coast of Porticello, near Palermo, when it was hit by a tornado over the sea, also known as a waterspout

It’s CCTV footage of a tornado flipping a large catamaran in an Auckland marina in 2019. But look just before the catamaran flies through the air and you can clearly see a superyacht, just like the Bayesian.

It has the same multiple layers of metal ‘spreaders’ on its huge mast and it gets flattened by the tornado. Then it does exactly what Bayesian should have done.

It immediately returns to the original upright ramrod position.

That is what a well-designed yacht with the right keel depth should do. The Italian authorities yesterday came closer to explaining why Bayesian did not do that.

During a meeting of the various rescue teams involved in the search for the missing passengers, divers reported that the yacht’s lifting keel had not been fully lowered.

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According to state broadcaster RAI, the keel, which gives a yacht stability and straight-line sailing ability, was lowered to a depth of 4 meters instead of the full 7.5 meters.

It is also reported that the space on the lower deck, where the boat’s tender (the motorboat used to ferry passengers and crew ashore) is located, was not fully closed when the ship sank.

They had returned to the yacht late at night from a trip ashore. We do not know whether it was a crew message, a passenger transfer or a dinner ashore.

“They partially pulled up the tender,” one of the experts told RAI, “but they hadn’t properly stowed it on board after that.”

Looking at the plans for the ship, the relevant compartment appears to be under the starboard bow. A senior maritime expert tells me that none of these factors were unusual for a yacht at anchor, as Bayesian would have it.

“You might not have a lifting keel all the way down when you’re anchored close to shore because you don’t want to hit the bottom,” he explains. “And you might not be able to stow the tender or close all your hatches when you’re anchored. You close them when you go out to sea.”

Tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch was aboard the Bayesian (pictured at his renovated mill on his Suffolk farm in 2021)

However, these factors could have made a big difference in the early hours of Monday morning. If the keel had been fully extended, the yacht would have had a better chance of righting itself. If the doors to the tender compartment had been sealed, there would not have been what RAI reported as ‘a river of water’ in the hull as the wind blew the yacht onto its side. Once a significant amount of water enters the hull, stability is almost immediately compromised.

An anonymous engineer from the shipyard that built the yacht is convinced that this cannot be blamed on the weather alone.

“The Bayesian yacht most likely sank due to human error, an inappropriate attitude towards the possible arrival of a disturbance,” said the engineer from Italy’s Sea Group, the company that owns Perini Navi. It was Perini Navi of Viareggio that launched the yacht in 2008.

Mr Lynch at Autonomy’s headquarters in Cambridge Business Park in 2000

Mr Lynch (second from left) is seen in the early days of his technology company Autonomy in Cambridge

Speaking anonymously to state TV, the engineer pointed to possible malfunctions, from open doors to the fact that the engines were not running (while the skipper on a nearby yacht was using his engines properly and suffered no damage). There has been repeated criticism that passengers were still in their cabins and unprepared – and possibly even asleep. “Even with the whirlwind coming,” the engineer added, “there was enough time. Fifteen minutes would have been enough to activate all the safety measures.”

These are just some of the issues that demand an explanation from the yacht’s captain, New Zealand-born James Cutfield, who has already been extensively questioned by authorities.

All the survivors are currently being housed in a luxury hotel complex overlooking the bay where Bayesian went down. It is strictly off-limits to the media. Looking out to sea yesterday, it could have been a holiday resort in mid-August, but with the sadness and shock inside.

The Bayesian storm (pictured) turned during a severe thunderstorm on Monday morning

Yesterday, a guest said he saw Cutfield looking “very tired” in a green T-shirt and pink shorts as he was wheeled around the hotel grounds in a golf cart, carrying a pair of crutches.

Yacht experts are already baffled by the ship’s lack of preparedness for such severe weather. “I’m surprised they didn’t follow this extreme weather pattern as it moved across the Mediterranean,” says one, who points out that a very large yacht had been lost in Mallorca a few days earlier and that there were multiple reports of terrible winds and storms gradually moving south and east over Corsica.

Yesterday I reported that the maritime world was astounded by the speed at which a superyacht built by a world-class shipyard and top designers came to anchor and sank almost immediately.

It now appears that the immediate explanation – namely that the Bayesian was incredibly unlucky enough to be hit by a waterspout that toppled its record-breaking 246-foot aluminum mast – is only half the story.

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