Arsenal failed to win the Premier League title after topping the table on December 25 last season, becoming the 15th team to do so… but as they lead the way once again, is being top at Christmas a blessing or curse?

Here in my heart topped the British charts on Christmas Day 1952, becoming the first song to do so and the start of one of the most enduring festive traditions.

There was no Premier League then, the old First Division reigned supreme and the champions would be Arsenal, who claimed the title on goal average from Preston.

It took another 26 years for English football to adopt a simpler tiebreak system, while the seismic shift to the Premier League came more than forty years after Al Martino's ballad dominated the airwaves.

In the 32 years that followed, 11 different teams topped the rankings on December 25.

But does being on top at Christmas have any meaning? And what conclusions can we draw about how this season will turn out?

In most Premier League seasons, Christmas Day falls between matchdays 17 and 19, after which the contenders have provided ample evidence of their strengths and weaknesses.

The most notable exceptions occurred in 2020-2021, when the big day fell after matchday 14 due to the delayed start to the season following the COVID-disrupted previous campaign. Last term was also a strange affair, with the 2022 World Cup halting the national calendar between November 12 and Boxing Day.

As a result, a team's margin of lead at Christmas is a much better indication of their chances of finishing as champions than whether they were actually top or not.

In total, sixteen teams have topped the table and finished as title winners, with Manchester United and Chelsea completing this double count more times than any other team (five).

Arsenal's slump last season took the number of sides who failed to convert their lead to 15, but the Gunners are not the worst offenders in this regard.

Liverpool have not won the league more times after topping the table at Christmas more times than any other club (five), two more than the Gunners.

To be fair to both clubs, the title race was relatively tight in each of their failures and even if there was a bigger gap it was compensated. Take Mikel Arteta's side last year, who beat Wolves 2-0 to move five points clear of Manchester City at the top.

The Gunners' match against City was rescheduled until much later in the season before Pep Guardiola's side showed their superiority to leave the challengers behind with a 4-1 win at the Etihad.

Liverpool had a two-point lead at the top in the 2021/22 season, while the gap was four points in 2018/19. The Reds began their unwanted hat-trick in 2013/14 when they topped City in the league on goal difference on December 25.

The common denominator in all revolutions were the Cityzens. City have taken the title from their Manchester rivals since winning the title for the first time in 2012.

Since then, they have won the competition more often when they were not in the lead at the mid-way point of the unofficial stage (4) than when they were (3).

In the first decade of the Premier League, Sir Alex Ferguson's United were the division's most threatening predator. After falling behind, he managed to win the competition five times.

Being top of the tree seemed to have no relevance whatsoever to the outcome in the first decade of the money division as Norwich, Leeds, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Newcastle and United themselves squandered the lead.

Most famously, the Magpies let a 10-point lead slip through their fingers during the 1995-96 season under Kevin Keegan – the largest lead at that stage not to deliver a title.

In fact, Newcastle have the distinction of being the side to have topped the table the most times at Christmas without winning the division (2).

At the other end of the spectrum, Arsene Wenger's Gunners scored 13 points over United, helping the Frenchman win the first of three top-flight titles in 1997-98.

Despite losing their last two games, Arsenal managed to lead their rivals to the title by a single point, winning ten games in a row and dragging themselves back into contention.

That success started a strange trend for the north London club. Arsenal have never won the Premier League when top of the table at Christmas. Their three successes came while they were in pursuit, and each time they reached the top of the tree on December 25, they fell away.

Their record is in stark contrast to their London rivals Chelsea, who only won the Premier League title when they were ahead.

Jose Mourinho's dominant team in the 2004-2005 and 2005-2006 seasons had a lead of five and nine points and was able to more than use this lead in the second half of the season.

The Blues' last title winners of 2016-17 also felt comfortable over the festive period, with a six-point lead over the rest.

Chelsea are joined by Blackburn and Leicester as the only teams with a 100 percent conversion rate, although the Championship teams have topped the table just once each, compared to the Blues' five.

When it comes to the biggest advantage on the big day, that honor is shared by recent greats City and Liverpool in 2017/18 and 2019/20. Those sides ended their respective campaigns with 100 and 99 points, so it's no surprise they led by 13 points each.

Over the years, a lead of more than five points almost always results in May celebrations. As previously mentioned, only Newcastle and Arsenal have failed to convert such a large lead into silverware.

Being top at Christmas was much more predictive in the Premier League's second and third decades, with the leader only failing to win the title four times and three times.

But the divisions could return to the freedom of all that was commonplace in the 1990s. So is being on top at Christmas a blessing or a curse?

It has certainly been a curse for Arsenal, and more often than not for Liverpool too, especially when City are in the hunt. To give Gunners fans some consolation, no team has been the best at Christmas in consecutive seasons and failed to win the title in either year.

So whatever happens in May, history will be made.