AP VoteCast: Iowa caucusgoers want big changes, see immigration as more important than the economy
WASHINGTON — Iowa Republicans head into their state’s caucuses on Monday with a greater desire to focus on immigration than on the health of the U.S. economy — a possible sign that cultural battles could overshadow pocketbook issues as a motivator.
Their message to Republican candidates in this first presidential election is clear: About nine in ten want an upheaval or substantial change in the way the U.S. government operates. Many expressed skepticism about the government’s justice system and the integrity of U.S. elections, a testament to the influence former President Donald Trump still has over a significant portion of the Republican Party.
AP VoteCast’s findings reinforce the severe polarization we saw during the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. The answers from people heading to the Republican caucuses indicate a desire for major changes in Democratic President Joe Biden’s policies on issues such as abortion, race, gender identity, education, U.S. support for Ukraine and whether immigrants help or harm the country.
About two-thirds of caucus participants say they decided who to support more than a month ago, including about 4 in 10 who say they have always known. About 2 in 10 say they have only made a decision in the past few days. Most Iowans who attend a caucus have done so before, but about 3 in 10 attendees are first-time attendees.
AP VoteCast is a survey of more than 1,500 voters who said they planned to participate in Monday’s Republican caucuses in Iowa. The survey is conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
According to AP VoteCast, about 4 in 10 GOP caucusgoers chose immigration as the most important issue facing the country. About a third said it was the economy. Fewer people mentioned other priorities, including foreign policy, health care, abortion or energy.
The vast majority, about three-quarters, say immigrants are negative for the country, an indication that caucusgoers are seeking not only more order at the U.S.-Mexico border but also major cuts in the number of foreigners allowed into the United States come.
About 9 in 10 in the survey are building a wall along that border, with about 7 in 10 expressing strong support for the idea that Trump first championed during his 2016 campaign.
A burst of inflation in 2021 and 2022 has many adults viewing the U.S. economy as in decline. But inflation has eased over the past year as supply chains improved, pandemic aid declined and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
People in Iowa appear to be relatively confident about their personal finances. About two-thirds said their finances remained stable or improved.
Caucusgoers want sweeping changes in the way the federal government is run, suggesting they place far more importance on disruption than on finding common ground. About 3 in 10 say they are looking for a complete and total overhaul. About six in 10 caucusgoers say they want substantial changes.
The vast majority of Iowa caucusgoers have confidence in their state’s elections, but about four in 10 have little or no confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections. Nearly six in ten have little or no confidence in the American legal system.
It’s not rocket science to say that Republican voters want a candidate who is smart, strong and poised to win the general election in November. But that’s exactly what they want.
About 9 in 10 say it is very important that their nominee has the mental capacity to be in the White House. A similar share wants a strong leader, while about 8 in 10 say it is very important that the Republican Party’s nominee can win the general election.
Mind you, most Republican caucusgoers still think they might have won the 2020 election, which put Biden in the White House and ousted Trump after one term. About six-in-ten believe Biden was not legitimately elected president, despite consistent evidence that he was.
Trump was indicted several times in 2023 and faces the risk of one or more criminal convictions this year. But that appears to have done little damage to his reputation, as the allegations are viewed through a political lens.
About three-quarters say the charges against Trump are political attempts to undermine him, rather than legitimate efforts to investigate important issues.
Still, about a quarter say Trump has done something illegal when it comes to at least one of the lawsuits he faces: his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 riot at the U.S. Capitol, his alleged efforts to interfere with the vote . of the 2020 presidential election or the discovery of classified documents in his Florida home that were supposed to be in government custody.
Many in the survey want the federal government to withdraw from world affairs. About half say the United States should take a less active role in solving global problems. About 3 in 10 say the current role is about right, while 2 in 10 say the U.S. should expand its foreign involvement.
There is also disagreement about which countries the US should help. About two-thirds of Iowa caucusgoers support continued aid to Israel in its fight against Hamas. But about 6 in 10 oppose continued aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Views on abortion are far from simple, but most GOP caucusgoers in Iowa say there should be limited access to the procedure.
About 2 in 10 say abortion should be illegal in all cases. About half of those say it should be illegal in most cases. The rest say it should be legal in most or all cases. About three-quarters of caucus participants support a ban on abortions after fifteen weeks of pregnancy, and about two-thirds support a ban after six weeks of pregnancy.
___
AP VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research for AP and Fox News. The survey of 1,517 voters was conducted over eight days and ended when the caucuses began. The interviews took place in English and Spanish. The survey combines a random sample of registered voters from state voter files and self-identified registered voters selected from online panels that are not likely to vote. The margin of sampling error for voters is estimated at plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Find more details about AP VoteCast’s methodology at https://ap.org/votecast.
___
Follow the AP’s live coverage for the latest updates on the Iowa caucuses. Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2024 elections at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024