AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Tuesday presidential and state primaries
WASHINGTON — Voting resumes Tuesday in the races for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, a week after President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump secured enough delegate support to become their parties’ presumptive nominees. Three states will also hold primaries for other offices as the battle for control of the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives comes into sharper focus in November.
Biden and Trump will appear at the primaries in four states: Arizona, Illinois, Kansas and Ohio. Trump will also appear on the ballot in Florida, which has canceled its Democratic primaries. Neither candidate faces major challenges, although “None of names shown” will be a voting option for both Kansas primaries.
Further down the ballot, California and Ohio will hold special primaries to fill vacancies in the closely divided House. In California’s 20th District, nine candidates are vying to replace former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who resigned in December after members of his own party ousted him from the presidency. All candidates will be on the same ballot regardless of party, and if no one receives a majority of votes on Tuesday, the top two candidates will advance to the special general election in May. The winner will serve the remainder of McCarthy’s term. A separate primary election was held on March 5 for the full term that begins in January 2025. Republicans Vince Fong, a state lawmaker, and Mike Boudreaux, the Tulare County sheriff, advanced to the November ballot. They are also participating in Tuesday’s special primaries.
In Ohio’s 6th Congressional District, voters will choose nominees to replace former Republican U.S. Rep. Bill Johnson, who resigned in January to become president of Youngstown State University. Three Republicans and two Democrats are competing in both a special election to fill out the remainder of Johnson’s term and in the regularly scheduled primaries for the full term. The winner of the special election will advance to the special general election on June 11.
Ohio Republicans will also decide a competitive U.S. Senate primary featuring Senator Matt Dolan, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose and businessman Bernie Moreno, who has Trump’s support. Dolan has the support of Governor Mike DeWine and former Senator Rob Portman, and was the only candidate in his primary who did not actively seek Trump’s endorsement. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown this fall in one of the key races for control of the House.
In addition to the presidential election, Illinois will also hold state primaries on Tuesday. Three sitting members of Congress are facing competitive challenges within their parties. In the 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Chuy García versus Councilman Raymond Lopez. In the 7th District, Rep. Danny Davis is part of a crowded field that includes Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, community organizer Kina Collins and two others. In the 12th District, Republican Rep. Mike Bost faces a challenge from former state Sen. Darren Bailey.
In the presidential race, Biden and Trump are the favorites in their primaries because neither faces major challenges. Early indications of them winning statewide at a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held this year could be enough to determine the statewide winners.
In California’s special congressional elections, the results of the March 5 primary for the full-term seat provide a useful point of comparison, as both races featured the same major candidates. Fong was the top finisher on March 5, with Boudreaux a distant second and Democrat Marisa Wood in third. A candidate can win the seat on Tuesday if he receives more than 50% of the votes. Otherwise, the top two winners will advance to a special general election in May. This could delay determining who won the race. If the leading candidate is hovering near 50%, the race may not be called until the additional votes are counted, even if the front-runner leads the rest of the field by a significant margin. The Associated Press will either declare a winner if a candidate clearly receives more than 50% of the vote, or declare that no candidate has received a majority and determine which two candidates will advance to the May special election.
Here are the March 19 matches at a glance:
Democrats: 379
Republicans: 350
Arizona, Florida (Republican only), Illinois, Kansas, Ohio
STATE PRE-DECLARATIONS (4): Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, Ohio
STATE PRE-DECLARATIONS (5): Arizona, Florida (Republicans only), Illinois, Kansas, Ohio
California, Illinois, Ohio
7:00 PM EDT: Most polls close in Florida
7:30 PM EDT: All polls close in Ohio
8:00 PM EDT: All polls close in Illinois; final polls close in Florida; most polling places are closing in Kansas
9:00 PM EDT: Final polls close in Kansas; The first polling stations close in Arizona
10:00 PM EDT: Most polls close in Arizona
11:00 PM EDT: All polls close in California
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Gabriel Cornejo, Frankie Lozada, Stephen Lyons, Jason Palmer, Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson. 72 delegates at stake
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Ryan Binkley, John Castro, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, David Stuckenberg, Vivek Ramaswamy. 43 delegates at stake
WHO CAN VOTE: Voters registered with a party may only participate in their own party’s primaries. Independents may vote in any primary.
FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 11:01 PM ET
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 7:11 PM ET with approximately 77% of total votes counted
US HOUSE DISTRICT 20 SPECIAL PRIMARY: Republicans Mike Boudreaux, Anna Zoë Cohen, Vince Fong and Kyle Kirkland. Democrats Harmesh Kumar and Marisa Wood. No party preference: James Cardoza, Ben Dewell, David Fluhart. All candidates are listed together on the same ballot paper, regardless of party. If no candidate receives a majority of votes, the top two votes will advance to the special general election on May 21.
WHO CAN VOTE: Any registered voter in California’s 20th Congressional District may participate in the special primary election.
FIRST VOTES REPORTED (March 5 primary): 11:11 PM EDT
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 5:10 PM EDT with approximately 51% of total votes counted
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): The primaries were canceled because Biden was the only candidate nominated by the state party. All 224 delegates awarded to Biden
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Binkley, Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Hutchinson, Ramaswamy. 125 delegates at stake
WHO CAN VOTE: Only voters registered with a party may participate in that party’s primaries. Democrats cannot vote in Republican primaries, or vice versa.
FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 7:01 PM ET
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 1:14 PM ET with approximately 99.8% of total votes counted
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Lozada, Phillips, Williamson. 147 delegates at stake
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Binkley, Christie, DeSantis, Haley. 64 delegates at stake
US HOUSE DISTRICT 4 PRIMARY (D): Rep. Chuy Garcia, Raymond Lopez
US HOUSE DISTRICT 7 PRIMARY (D): Representative Danny Davis, Melissa Conyears-Ervin, Kouri Marshall, Nikhil Bhatia, Kina Collins
US HOUSE DISTRICT 12 PRIMARY (R): Rep. Mike Bost, Darren Bailey
COOK COUNTY STATE ATTORNEY (D): Clayton Harris, Eileen O’Neill Burke
WHO CAN VOTE: Any registered voter may participate in the primary elections of any party.
FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 8:05 PM EDT
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 3:12 a.m. EDT with approximately 90% of total votes counted
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Palmer, Phillips, Williamson, “None of names shown.” 33 delegates at stake
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Binkley, DeSantis, Haley, “None of names shown.” 39 delegates at stake
WHO CAN VOTE: Voters registered with a party may only participate in their own party’s primaries. Independents may vote in either party’s primary.
FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 Primaries): 8:22 PM EDT
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 3:31 a.m. EDT with approximately 97% of total votes counted
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (D): Biden, Phillips. 127 delegates at stake
PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY (R): Trump, Christie, DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy. 79 delegates at stake
US SENATE PRIMARY (R): Frank LaRose, Bernie Moreno, Matt Dolan
US HOUSE DISTRICT 2 PRIMARY (R): Niraj Antani, Kim Georgeton, Phil Heimlich, Ron Hood, Thomas Hwang
US HOUSE DISTRICT 6 PRIMARY (R): Michael Rulli, Reggie Stoltzfus, Rick Tsai (for both full and partial terms)
US HOUSE DISTRICT 9 PRIMARY (R): Steve Lankenau, JR Majewski, Derek Merrin, Craig Riedel
SUPREME COURT PRIMARY (D): Lisa Forbes, Terri Jamison (for term ending December 31)
WHO CAN VOTE: Any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary election.
FIRST VOTES REPORTED (2022 primaries): 7:38 PM EDT
FINAL ELECTION NIGHT UPDATE: 1:14 a.m. EDT with approximately 99% of total votes counted
Kansas (as “None of names shown” on both Democratic and Republican ballots)
As of Tuesday, there are 118 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 153 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 231 days until the November general election.
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Associated Press writer Maya Sweedler contributed to this report.