AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the South Carolina Republican presidential primary

WASHINGTON — WASHINGTON (AP) — Donald Trump and Nikki Haley will face off Saturday in the first Republican presidential primary in South Carolina, the first head-to-head showdown between the last two remaining major candidates since the New Hampshire primary a month ago.

The match will take place at Haley’s home base. She served as governor of South Carolina for six years before resigning in 2017 to serve as U.N. ambassador when Trump was elected president. Despite her history, Haley faces strong headwinds in a state where Trump has the support of most of the party establishment, has had a substantial lead in recent polls and enjoys wide popularity among the conservative base.

Both candidates have sharply attacked the other, with Trump using derisive nicknames for Haley and downplaying her work in his Cabinet. Haley has increasingly questioned Trump’s fitness for office, most recently criticizing his comments on Russia and NATO. It’s a marked contrast from earlier in the campaign, when she and other Republican hopefuls avoided criticizing Trump directly.

The South Carolina primaries are usually an indicator of which candidate will win the Republican presidential nomination. Since the state’s modern version of primaries began in 1980, all but one of the winners of the Republican primary have clinched the party’s nomination. The only exception was Newt Gingrich in 2012.

A look at what to expect on election night:

The primaries will be held Saturday, with polls closing at 7:00 PM EST statewide.

The ballot will feature Ryan Binkley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, David Stuckenberg and Trump.

South Carolina has an open primary system, meaning any registered voter can participate in any party’s primaries. But voters are only allowed to participate in one party’s presidential primary, so people who voted in the Democratic primary on February 3 are not allowed to vote in the Republican primary.

Only about 4% of registered voters cast ballots in the Democratic election, leaving most of the electorate, including Democrats and independents who preferred Haley over Trump and did not vote in the earlier election, eligible to weigh in on the Republican race.

There are 50 delegates at stake and 29 will be awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. Twenty-one delegates will be allocated based on votes in each of the state’s seven congressional districts. The highest vote-getter in each district receives three delegates from that district.

The last time Haley won a competitive Republican Party primary in South Carolina was in 2010, when she was the top vote-getter in a four-way primary and was forced into a runoff, which she won handily. Six years later, Trump won a crowded six-way race in the state’s presidential primaries on his way to capturing the White House and becoming the dominant figure in Republican politics.

Republican electoral politics have changed dramatically since Haley and Trump last faced other Republican candidates in the Palmetto State. Still, their past election results offer some clues to Saturday’s primaries.

In their last competitive primaries in South Carolina, Haley’s strongest performances and some of Trump’s worst were in counties where Democrats perform best in general elections.

Trump carried 44 of the state’s 46 counties during the 2016 primaries, all but Richland and Charleston, the second and third most populous. Haley won these counties by wide margins in her 2010 runoff election, as did Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 general election.

Haley’s other strongest areas in 2010 were the relatively small counties of Bamberg, Lee, Marlboro and Orangeburg, all of which Biden carried, as well as Dorchester and Chesterfield, which Biden lost to Trump.

The results are broadly consistent with Haley’s performance so far in the 2024 presidential primaries. Her strongest performances in Iowa and New Hampshire were in Democratic-friendly areas of the states, and her worst in Republican-friendly areas.

These results suggest that Haley’s best chance of winning in South Carolina, or at a competitive outcome, would be to win big in the state’s Democratic areas, especially in vote-rich Charleston and Richland, while remaining competitive in the largest county of Greenville and would minimize competition. the margins in heavily Republican areas. Likewise, she should likely do well in votes cast before Election Day, which in most counties will be the first votes reported on Election Night.

The Associated Press does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it is certain that there is no scenario that will allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

There are approximately 3.3 million registered voters in South Carolina. Voters do not register per party. Turnout in the 2016 Republican primary was about 25% of registered voters. During the 2012 primaries, it was about 22%.

Saturday’s election will be the first Republican presidential primary held in the state since a new early voting law went into effect in May 2022. The law allows voters to cast their ballots in person before Election Day, without an excuse.

The early voting period for the Republican Party primaries is February 12-22, excluding February 18-19. During the 2016 Republican primaries, when voters had to provide an excuse to vote absentee, about 8% of votes were cast before Election Day. During the 2022 midterm primaries, after the new law went into effect, the pre-Election Day vote was about 21%. About 36% of votes cast in the Feb. 3 Democratic primary were before Election Day.

On February 17, almost 105,000 voters had already cast their votes.

During the 2024 South Carolina Democratic primary, the AP first reported results at 7:08 PM EST.

The primary night’s tabulation ended at 10:47 PM EST with nearly 100% of the votes counted.

As of Saturday, there are 142 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and 255 days until the November general election.