AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Illinois presidential and state primaries

WASHINGTON — Three sitting members of Congress face tough challenges from their own parties in Tuesday’s primaries in Illinois, while at the top of the ticket, presumptive presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump are expected to easily fill their delegates.

Neither the Democratic president nor the Republican former president faces a competitive race in Illinois on Tuesday, after both won enough delegates this week to clinch their parties’ nominations this summer.

Illinois will also hold primaries for congressional and state offices on Tuesday, including races for the U.S. House, Senate and State House, as well as for numerous local offices. Among the most notable races are key battles in three congressional districts where incumbents have faced significant challenges even though the seats are not at risk of changing ownership in November.

In the 4th Congressional District, Democratic Rep. Chuy Garcia versus Councilman Raymond Lopez. In the 7th District, Rep. Danny Davis is part of a crowded field that includes Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin, community organizer Kina Collins and two others. In the 12th District, Republican Rep. Mike Bost faces a challenge from former state Sen. Darren Bailey.

Bost’s race has likely attracted the most national attention, as he received Trump’s endorsement in late February, while Bailey received an endorsement and campaign visit from U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida. Bost and Gaetz found themselves on opposite sides last year in the protracted battle to elect and oust then-U.S. Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California as speaker of the House of Representatives. Bost yelled at Gaetz on the House floor for his sharp criticism of McCarthy.

Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:

The presidential and state primaries will be held in Illinois on Tuesday. Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

The Associated Press will cover the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries and other contests in the state. The Democratic presidential primaries feature Biden, Frankie Lozada, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson. The candidates for the Republican primaries are Trump, Ryan Binkley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley.

Tuesday’s vote also includes primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives, Senate, House of Representatives, state Supreme Court and water commissioner. In Cook County, voters decide primaries for clerk, district attorney and county commissioner. DuPage County will have primaries for coroner and county recorder, while Kane County will choose nominees for county auditor and county recorder. Kendall County will also hold a primary election for circuit clerk.

Any registered voter may participate in the primaries of any party. Illinois does not register voters by party.

There are 147 pledged Democratic delegates at stake in Illinois. Thirty-two at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as well as 19 PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” At stake for the state’s 17 congressional districts are a total of 96 delegates, allocated in proportion to the voting results in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for statewide delegates and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.

There are 64 delegates at stake in the Republican primaries. Thirteen delegates are awarded to the winner of the statewide vote. The remaining 51 delegates are awarded by direct election in each of the state’s 17 congressional districts. Candidates for delegate appear on the ballot next to the name of the presidential candidate to whom they have made a pledge. Three delegates are elected from each district.

The presidential primaries are not competitive, as Biden and Trump secured their nominations unofficially and are not facing major candidates on the ballot. The release of voting results usually begins shortly after the polls close at 8:00 PM ET. Early indications of the two winning statewide at a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held this year could be enough to determine the statewide winners.

The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it has been established that there is no scenario with which the underlying candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Turnout in 2022 was about 10% of registered voters for Democratic primaries and between 8% and 9% for Republican primaries.

During the 2022 gubernatorial election, more than 587,000 votes were cast before Election Day, approximately 35% of all votes cast. On Wednesday, more than 348,000 voters had cast their ballots for Tuesday’s primaries before Election Day.

In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:05 p.m. ET, or 5 minutes after polls closed. Election night tabulation ended at 3:12 a.m. ET with approximately 90% of the total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there are 118 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 153 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 231 days until the November general election.