AP Decision Notes: What to expect in the Bridgeport, Connecticut, do-over mayoral primary

WASHINGTON — There may be a collective sense of déjà vu among Democrats in Bridgeport, Connecticut, on Tuesday as they head back to the polls for a court-ordered reconsideration of a mayoral election they thought they had decided months ago.

Last November, a state judge threw out the results of the September 12 Democratic mayoral primary in Bridgeport and ordered that a new primary take its place. At issue was evidence that supporters of Mayor Joe Ganim had placed multiple absentee ballots in ballot boxes outside. Ganim said these supporters broke the law, but denied any knowledge or involvement in the scheme.

In the September primary, Ganim defeated challenger John Gomes with 251 votes out of 8,173 cast. The Gomes campaign later sued the city, demanding a new primary after obtaining video surveillance evidence of the ballot box stuffing. The November 7 general election went ahead as planned, and Ganim again prevailed in a close race over Gomes, who ran as an independent candidate, and two other candidates. But the judge’s order also made that election moot, and now Ganim and Gomes face off for the third time in four months.

The winner will again face Republican David Herz and independent candidate Lamond Daniels in a repeat of the general election scheduled for Feb. 27.

Ganim is seeking an eighth term as mayor. He previously served from 1991 to 2003 before spending seven years in federal prison on corruption and racketeering charges stemming from his time in City Hall. Voters returned him to office in 2015 and 2019. Gomes served in Ganim’s second government as the city’s acting chief administrator until he was demoted in 2016 and later as assistant chief administrator until his resignation in July 2022. Gomes has publicly suggested that his ouster was in retaliation for making him a possible hopeful was mayor.

Ganim previously faced a major challenge during his 2019 re-election bid, when he narrowly defeated Sen. Marilyn Moore by 270 votes. That result was also challenged in court, but a judge ultimately upheld the victory.

Bridgeport, the state’s largest city, is a Democratic stronghold. President Joe Biden carried the city in 2020 with 79% of the vote.

Here’s a look at what to expect on election night:

The special Democratic primary election for mayor of Bridgeport, Connecticut will be held on Tuesday. Polls close at 8:00 PM ET.

The Associated Press will cover the special Democratic mayoral primary in Bridgeport.

Connecticut has a closed primary system, meaning only registered Democrats are allowed to participate in Tuesday’s special primaries. The registration deadline is Friday at noon ET.

Turnout for regularly scheduled mayoral primaries in Bridgeport was relatively modest. During the September 12 Democratic primary, this was 17% of registered party members, compared to 21% during the 2019 primary. As a late addition to the election calendar, Tuesday’s primary could see particularly low turnout, especially considering that the voters already contributed to this election just four months ago. As with any low-turnout election, a competitive race could hinge on just a handful of votes, which would slow the race-calling process.

Ganim won his disputed victory in the September primaries with 51.5% of the vote, compared to 48.5% for Gomes. Gomes was the voting leader on the primary ballot, but Ganim moved on once the absentee ballots were counted. The same pattern held true for the November general election. The AP did not declare a winner for the general, as the special primaries had already been ordered at that time.

Considering that both the primary and general elections were extremely competitive and that absentee ballots are at the center of this drama, it is entirely possible that no race calling will occur until absentee ballots are considered taken.

The AP does not make forecasts and will only declare a winner if it is certain that there is no scenario in which a trailing candidate can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as concessions to candidates or declarations of victory. The AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Connecticut law requires an automatic recount if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total votes cast or less than 20 votes but not more than 1,000 votes. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

As of Oct. 31, there were nearly 49,000 registered Democrats in Bridgeport.

Turnout for the first Democratic mayoral election on September 12 was about 17% of registered Democrats in Bridgeport. In the 2019 Democratic primaries, it was about 21%.

During the September 12 primary, 28% of all votes were cast before Election Day. That was up from 13% during the 2019 Democratic primaries.

As of Wednesday, 756 votes had already been cast for the special primaries.

During the 2022 midterm primaries in Bridgeport, the AP first reported results in Bridgeport at 8:13 p.m. ET. Election night tabulation ended at 12:17 a.m. ET and all votes had been counted.

In the 2022 midterm general elections, the AP first reported the results at 8:28 PM ET. Election night tabulation ended at 4:50 a.m. ET with approximately 87% of the total votes counted.